AI Isn’t Coming: It’s Already Here, And It Will Just Keep Evolving

AI Isn’t Coming: It’s Already Here, And It Will Just Keep Evolving

The following is adapted from Surfing Rogue Waves.

People seem to either love or hate talking about artificial intelligence. Yet, it’s not up for debate. Non-biological forms of intelligence are all around us in our everyday lives, whether or not we choose to accept it. 

The US military has already implanted chips into human brains to advance our knowledge and understanding of how to treat and cure individuals suffering from combat trauma and post-traumatic stress disorder. In other studies, we have seen how doctors and researchers can cure acute depression by implanting electrodes directly in the brain of patients.

Today, using just our minds, paralyzed individuals can move bionic limbs and operate computers. There are wireless remote-control technologies that allow individuals to control connected items in their homes through a “mind-reading” electric helmet-like device. The list of how AI impacts us goes on and on.   

All of this progress assumes the human biological brain will remain the central, controlling element of intelligence. However, is that a safe assumption to make? What are the ethical considerations we should be considering? Those are questions worth thinking about, right now, by every single person on this planet, because AI isn’t coming. It’s here, and it affects all of us.

Lack of AI Transparency 

In 2018, Meredith Whittaker, a research scientist at New York University and co-founder of the AI Now Institute, highlighted how AI systems cause many deep concerns around the process, transparency, ability to examine or inspect, and accountability of predictive analytics. 

The day is rapidly approaching (if it’s not already here) when it could not only be impossible for the average person to understand how AI systems make decisions—even the technical experts who created the technology may not have the visibility to understand how the system made the decision. The reality is that many of the machine-learning AI systems work blindly. 

The complete lack of visibility and understanding into how a decision is made creates a major problem around bias in the decision system. We not only lose the ability to remove the bias from the system, but we will not even be aware if bias is happening at all. And yes, machines can be biased. In fact, most technology, AI, programs, and machines are built around bias.

Only as Good as the Data 

We can’t just consider lack of transparency when thinking about the impacts of AI on our world. Due to our humanistic shortcomings in how we make decisions, AI systems are popular because of how they outperform the best of us in predictive-based decision-making. Our reliance and comfort on these automated decisions continue to grow without any awareness of the impacts. 

In less significant situations, the predictive decision carries a relatively low risk. However, these predictive decisions are being used more in applications with higher risks and consequences, like in medicine, where these AI systems are used to identify cancers or treat patients.

Where do we draw the line? Should we allow AI to make life-or-death decisions? Should they make decisions in our legal systems to see who is granted bail and who serves more time? Should these AI systems predict our policing or military actions? Should they decide which target is a threat and how that threat should be suppressed or terminated? Is it too early to call AI “they”? 

For many, the answer would be no. What if the AI systems are not perfect but significantly better and more accurate than what a human could do? What then? Systems capable of predictive data analysis are often more accurate and significantly cheaper. As they continue to evolve, they will become cheaper again and most likely continue to increase in popularity. But they have bias, and they are only as good as the data they use.

How Much Bias Do We Allow?

Even if we’re aware of an AI’s bias, it’s still important to take a good hard look at how much bias we allow. An AI system developed to be highly sensitive to bias would also have to be much more myopic in its abilities. It would have trouble with large amounts of complexity, and vice versa for less-sensitive biased algorithms that would welcome complexity but be much more prone to bias. Who decides how much of what is OK?

These problems and many questions should be addressed before the system is created. But this is rarely the case. It’s hard to determine the ethics when we aren’t even sure what the system can do. 

This is not a futuristic concept or problem; we have seen many of these technological biases creep into our current world, organizations, and governments already. For example, Amazon’s automated recruitment system used for vetting potential employees discriminated toward women’s employment, something Amazon had an issue with long before AI showed up. This system was discontinued in 2017 by Amazon once the bias was identified. 

Human-Robot Interaction

There’s another angle to consider: Human-Robot Interaction (HRI). HRI is exactly what it sounds like, humans and robots interacting together. We see this more and more in both our personal and professional lives. In a world in which humans and machines are stronger together than on their own, this tidal wave of a partnership shows no sign of slowing down anytime soon. 

How do robots care for humans beyond what we see in service or medical settings? 

Once again, we’re facing a conversation that makes many people uncomfortable, and discomfort and tension put us right in the middle of a barrel, meaning it must be addressed. The idea also overlaps with the areas of deception. 

Do we dehumanize the caring aspect of “taking care” of someone? Or do we humanize the AI experience for the sick, ill, elderly, or in need of care? What if humanizing this experience makes patients happier and increases their longevity? If this is the case, and we choose to humanize care, we are deceitful since AI systems cannot actually “care” for anything. 

Where do we draw the line when deceiving what models of AI systems are acceptable and those that are not? With a large demographic of well-funded baby boomer generationals now needing care, AI systems are filling in the care gaps in healthcare. When is it OK to lie a little to people about the treatment they receive? Who gets to decide what is being done for the patient’s “own good”?

How Does Technology Impact Society?

Everything we discuss in AI comes down to the same handful of systems: the transparency of AI systems, data, the security of systems, and so on. Many existing governing bodies have already started to build out much of the standards around specific applications of autonomous systems. 

Autonomous air, water, and ground systems are already a megatrend from which we can dream up many world-changing applications, as well as potential nightmares—like with autonomous weapon systems. Suddenly, it’s not just a matter of the ethics of the technology, but how the technology impacts the society it exists within.

We need to consider these questions, and we need to do it now. AI is here, it’s evolving, and it’s not going away. If we are to have any hope of directing the ethics of AI, we must start the conversation now.

For more advice on how AI is shaping our world, you can find Surfing Rogue Waves on Amazon.

Eric Pilon-Bignell is a pragmatic futurist focused on addressing disruption by increasing the creative capacity of individuals, teams, and organizations to ignite change, innovation, and foster continuous growth. Eric has an undergraduate degree in engineering, an MBA in Information Systems, and a Ph.D. in Global Leadership. His doctoral work primarily explored complexity sciences centered on executive cognition and their use of intuitive improvisation, decision-making, artificial intelligence, and data-based decision models. When he is not working with clients, researching, or writing, he can be found in the mountains or on the water. He founded PROJECT7 to raise awareness and money for research on brain-related illnesses. Eric is currently working and living with his wife in Chicago, Illinois. To connect or learn more about this book, Eric, or PROJECT7, please visit www.ericpb.me.

To Adapt and Grow, Learn to Rationally Improvise

To Adapt and Grow, Learn to Rationally Improvise

The following is adapted from Surfing Rogue Waves.

Have you ever stopped to consider that our world places us at the center of an extremely complex system with constant additions of emerging information? To keep up, we have to react quickly. 

Not only that, but the ever-increasing changes are just going to get more intense over time. There’s no question about it: if we want to survive and thrive in our rapidly shifting world (both individually and as a species), we must be able to adapt to and grow with these changes.

Improvisation—or more accurately, rational improvisation—is the key to doing this. After all, without improvisation, how can we deal with (or better yet, seek out and embrace) the disruptions that are on their way? Because make no mistake, major disruptions are coming.

Look for the Disruption

The first step in rationally improvising is to look for pressures we feel, both perceived and real. Of course, we all face lots of different pressure, so we must be able to filter for the right kind of pressure. 

To do that, ask yourself some simple questions. Is this pressure forcing you to try something new or create a new relationship? Is this pressure because you believe you are right but worry someone might prove you wrong? Are you in a situation where you have no choice but to figure out a solution? This is the pressure we look for, and this is how you know when the disruption is creeping up on you. 

Maybe you changed professions, and you’re in your new job. Your goal isn’t to be the best at your job overnight but to slowly get better over time. As you put in the time, and you apply new ways of doing and thinking about things from your past, you get to the same level as your colleagues. Eventually, you even pass them. 

At this point, you can kick your feet up and get comfortable, or you can start hunting for the pressure again. Where is the next disruption? The more comfortable you get using this approach to everything in your life, the more successful you will be as a disruptor.

Leverage Your Strengths

Part of learning to adapt and grow through rational improvisation is leveraging your strengths. Being in an uncomfortable situation gives you an opportunity to lean into the tension by leveraging your strengths. Your strengths tend to be instinctive; they help you improvise and adapt to the moment. 

To thrive in the face of disruption, we need to identify our strengths and build off of them, and we must be willing to fall back on them when needed. Your strengths are what you do better and more instinctively than anyone else. Find out what they are and own them.

For example, you might find a job posting and push yourself to apply and compete for it if you feel it is worth your investment. Although you might feel this pressure, it is not overly disruptive. Now imagine a second example where you identify a problem at work. You could work to persuade and convince those in a position to create this new job to solve this problem. 

In the first situation, you are challenging yourself; we could call it sustainable innovation. You will only get a posted job if you already have many of the skills, nothing new, but possibly building on your past experience. There is well-established demand for the need. If you don’t get it, someone else will. 

The second option is creating something entirely new. Disruption theory states that those who create truly new market disruptions are six times more likely to succeed. There is no clear competition; there are no predetermined expectations, just uncharted water and waves. 

You Can Disrupt Even When You’re Busy

If you feel your day-to-day is already beyond capacity with obligations in life and work, you are not alone. However, it doesn’t mean you can’t seek out and leverage disruptions. Take it slow: to disrupt ourselves on a macro level, we start by disrupting on a micro level. So, find a way to give yourself a little more time to think differently. 

Maybe you get up ten, fifteen, twenty minutes earlier, skip checking your phone, and use this time to meditate, think, create, or explore something different. Or maybe you give up the one to two hours of Netflix and replace it with something just as relaxing that allows you to think more. 

Maybe you go for a walk; maybe you read a book, perhaps you do anything other than look at your phone. Maybe you play chess. Disruption author Whitney Johnson says that you should “look for opportunities to play where other people aren’t playing, where other people don’t want to play. You will be surprised how many opportunities come to you when you’re willing to play in those unusual places.”

There’s No One-Size-Fits-All Approach

Part of what makes this process successful is that it’s improvised. It does not prescribe or lay out specific sequential steps. It is designed to empower and establish an understanding that lends way to its creations. 

A one-size-fits-all approach would never work when it comes to adapting and growing, because no two moments or situations in life are the same. Everything in your life, your connections, your body, your brain, is unique to you. Having a prescriptive approach to the future simply makes no sense. However, once you master the ability to find the complexities in your life and leverage your strengths to overcome them, you’ll quickly find that you can adapt and thrive no matter what the future brings. 

So now, I challenge you—no matter how busy you are—to start thinking about where your life is ripe for disruption. Where can you find the opportunities to grow and improvise? Once you lean into those, I promise, your life will never be the same.

For more advice on how to leverage disruptions to adapt and grow, you can find Surfing Rogue Waves on Amazon.

Eric Pilon-Bignell is a pragmatic futurist focused on addressing disruption by increasing the creative capacity of individuals, teams, and organizations to ignite change, innovation, and foster continuous growth. Eric has an undergraduate degree in engineering, an MBA in Information Systems, and a Ph.D. in Global Leadership. His doctoral work primarily explored complexity sciences centered on executive cognition and their use of intuitive improvisation, decision-making, artificial intelligence, and data-based decision models. When he is not working with clients, researching, or writing, he can be found in the mountains or on the water. He founded PROJECT7 to raise awareness and money for research on brain-related illnesses. Eric is currently working and living with his wife in Chicago, Illinois. To connect or learn more about this book, Eric, or PROJECT7, please visit www.ericpb.me.

It’s Time for a Reset: Why Most of the Things We Worry About Aren’t Actually a Threat

It’s Time for a Reset: Why Most of the Things We Worry About Aren’t Actually a Threat

Fears. Sure, we all have them. At times they are rational, sometimes, not so much.  Over the course of humanity, fear has grown as an evolutionary safety mechanism and is responsible for much of our survival throughout the centuries. But have you ever stopped to ask yourself whether the fears you’re carrying around are legitimate? 

Most people worry a lot about the world and the dangers they imagine lurking around every turn. Why is that? A large part of it is due to the media, and a lot of it is because we’ve been taught to believe there are lots of things to worry about in this world. However—and this is important—the things we’re taught to worry about aren’t actually a threat, at least for most of us. 

It’s time to reset and understand the real dangers we face. Although still present in some regard, the fears that have motivated humanity for hundreds of years are no longer a significant threat. 

Most of us have jobs; we have families and friends or children to raise. Managing our day-to-day robs us of the mindset to properly dissect the noise and manipulation we face from the real threats we should be worried about. However, to truly thrive in the world of today and the world of tomorrow, that’s exactly what we need to do.

Our Fake Fear

Evolution, especially human evolution, is driven by fear. The fear of starvation or not having water takes a high priority. Then we worry about not losing what we have acquired, not being enslaved or killed by others. Maybe then we try to absolve the fear of dying from infections, diseases, or the bitter cold. 

We worry about more specific catastrophic events, too. We’re told that we have tensions hitting tipping points around systematic and cultural racism and discrimination, a global COVID pandemic that is running wild, continuous terrorist threats, countries at constant war, and some global powers even playing Russian roulette with nukes.

The reality, though, is the gravity of these fears are often misrepresented and politicized. Yes, food security and health and war are huge problems that need to be addressed, but from the existential viewpoint of humanity as a whole, these are no longer the greatest threats we face. What we need to fear today looks nothing like what we’ve spent the last thousand years being afraid of.

We’re Afraid of the Wrong Things

As our intelligence has evolved, we have become better at understanding and addressing our known fears. The problem is that fears that motivate us are no longer a threat to our survival. 

Before today, humanity faced three major problems that threatened our very existence: starvation, disease, and war. Although these are still problems today, they are not existential ones. In fact, these problems have reached the other end of the spectrum. People eat too much and die from diabetes. More people die from old age than a disease. More people die from suicide than those killed through crime, terrorism, and war combined. 

In 2010, obesity killed three times more humans than starvation and malnourishment combined. In 2014, over 2.1 billion humans were obese versus the 850 million humans who were malnourished. By 2030, 50% of the human population is expected to be obese. 

It’s a similar story when it comes to disease. The spread of infectious diseases has threatened the existence of humanity for a very long time. While epidemics are still a problem and devastating, they are not the same threat as they once were. There are numerous examples of this, but let’s just take one: smallpox. 

In 1967, the smallpox disease had infected fifteen million people and killed two million. In 1979, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported a global vaccination initiative to eliminate smallpox. By 2014, there was not a single human that was either infected or killed from smallpox. We can eliminate disease with science. 

What About Terrorism?

One of the primary functions of most governments is to keep their citizens safe. As the threat of violence continues to decrease, a government’s ability to mobilize the masses and shape behavior through fear also decreases. As a whole, the idea of government is about citizen control. What does a government do when its primary function of protecting its people is obsolete? When fear doesn’t do it, bring on terror. 

Terrorism is very much real and has found a way to take up vast airtime and overrun media coverage. With politicized agendas and unfounded media claims, the show of terrorism haunts our dreams as we imagine all the terrible violent ends we may face. 

But how much of a threat is terrorism, really? In 2010, 7,697 people died from terrorist violence. In the same year, three million people died from obesity. While the number of terrorism-related deaths varies from year to year, it is still nominal on the global scale of death. 

Globally, terrorism is a relatively nonexistent threat to the whole of humanity. This is not to downplay lives lost due to terrorism, of course. However, it should show you that it’s time to step back and look at what you’re actually afraid of, and whether that fear is legitimate. Terrorism isn’t going to end humanity, or even you, but the reaction to terrorism just might. 

The World is Changing

The industrial revolutions worked to solve the large-scale existential threats to humanity. Machine production in the First Industrial Revolution led to the creation of steam engines, which led to locomotives that built vast distribution networks for supplies and food. 

The Second Industrial Revolution ushered in the age of science and mass production, helping us understand the spread of infectious diseases and the diseases themselves. The Third Industrial Revolution brought us semiconductors and mainframe computers, which led to personal computers, smartphones, and the internet. 

As we continue to advance and build on all these inventions, we will continue to minimize the risk and impact of our existence’s previous threats. Everything, expected and not, that comes with the megatrends of the Fourth Industrial Revolution will only further resolve these problems, making our fears even more obsolete. What then? 

The emergence of technological advancements and innovation is creating a new existential threat that humans must deal with. We must move on from our perceived existential threats to addressing actual existential threats. Food shortages won’t wipe out humanity, but the inventions of the Fourth Industrial Revolution might. 

Let me put it another way. You might rather starve to death than face the potential threats posed by artificial intelligence.

The True Threat

We’ve gotten this far because of our potential for intelligence. Every generation overcomes challenges thought impossible by the previous generation because of our intelligence. This is why the most pressing threat any of us will face in our lifetime is a new form of intelligence: AI. It’s not sci-fi; this is a growing reality. 

Better understanding this new form of intelligence is not only essential to our survival but will be vital to shaping our short- and long-term futures. This is much more than the humanoid robots Hollywood loves to play with; it could be an invisible, cloud-based form of artificial intelligence. It could be a human who has augmented their brain through a wireless connection with endless amounts of digital storage and exponential computing power. 

Regardless of the exact form, a monopolistic form of singularity can occur. This will be the endgame for humanity unless we address all of the ways AI can be catastrophic. The early stages of this change are underway right now. This is the time for the conversation, and you must play a part. 

We Must Redefine Our Ethics

As a global community, we must work together to redefine our ethics around the current and future technological developments. When considering these ethics, we must have as many people as possible, with as many views and opinions as possible, involved in the process. 

No technical prowess is required. Instead, all we need is a basic understanding and education around the concept and topic and a clear open mind with a selfless focus on humanity. We all can participate. The key, though, is we must be willing to put aside our fake fears and focus on the true threat that’s coming.

For more advice on how to thrive in the world that’s coming, you can find Surfing Rogue Waves on Amazon.

Eric Pilon-Bignell is a pragmatic futurist focused on addressing disruption by increasing the creative capacity of individuals, teams, and organizations to ignite change, innovation, and foster continuous growth. Eric has an undergraduate degree in engineering, an MBA in Information Systems, and a Ph.D. in Global Leadership. His doctoral work primarily explored complexity sciences centered on executive cognition and their use of intuitive improvisation, decision-making, artificial intelligence, and data-based decision models. When he is not working with clients, researching, or writing, he can be found in the mountains or on the water. He founded PROJECT7 to raise awareness and money for research on brain-related illnesses. Eric is currently working and living with his wife in Chicago, Illinois. To connect or learn more about this book, Eric, or PROJECT7, please visit www.ericpb.me.

The Key to Identifying and Seizing Opportunities is Understanding Disruption

The Key to Identifying and Seizing Opportunities is Understanding Disruption

The following is adapted from Surfing Rogue Waves.

Disruption is inevitable. When our life systems are pushed out of equilibrium, either on purpose or by accident, we ultimately change and are allowed to grow. Some disruption is more obvious than others. Sometimes you will see the general direction of it; other times you will have to improvise as you pioneer through entirely new terrain created in the moment. 

Disruption isn’t a bad thing. Think of disruption like waves we want to surf: when we understand those waves of disruption, we avoid paddling into situations that are beyond our ability to handle (shark-infested waters or suicidal waves). At the same time, because we understand them, we can be excited about the oncoming waves instead of fearing them.  

Continuing with the surfing analogy, because it works so well to illustrate the point: waves are coming. They are the waves of change from technological advancements and all the other disruptions our world will experience. They will demand our focus as they push our limits like never before. However, the waves are inevitable. If you want to ride them, if you want to identify and seize the opportunities they bring, you must seek out the disruption. Make them the moments you live for. 

If you do—and I’ll share some insight about how to do that—the next thing you know, you’ll be surfing along in an automatic reaction in the face of disruption. You’ll be able to adapt and ride more waves, catching the best ones and allowing them to propel you forward. The alternative? Try to run from the waves, and the best you can hope for is that if you wipe out you are not left in the impact zone. The choice is yours.

Disruption Happens No Matter What

The waves of disruptions are like science; they are going to happen whether you believe in them or not. If you don’t address the disruption, face it, and ride it, you’ll be left behind. Welcome to the Fourth Industrial Revolution—disruption is the new normal, and it’s getting faster.

Disruption starts long before we see it. Consider Blockbuster and Netflix. For most of us, the fall of one and rise of the other seemed instantaneous. But looking back on it, there were specific and intentional actions and decisions that happened long before the public noticed. 

The trick, then, is to see these disruptions before they are surprises. The byproduct of disruption emerges at the intersection of our surfing framework as a transformational lever to transcend into our futures. 

However, keep in mind that disruption is an opportunity long before it is ever a threat. Trying to replicate the best and brightest is no longer a recipe for success. Disruption routinely shows us that warning signals rarely come from the top. 

We Can Leverage Disruption for Our Own Benefit

Keeping all that in mind, then, how can we identify, protect ourselves from, and leverage disruption for our own benefit? It all comes down to four key takeaways.

First, we must remember that disruption is our friend. In the world we currently live in, disruption is almost always an opportunity far before it is a threat of any kind. We need to embrace disruption and not try to avoid it in life. Although it might feel counterintuitive at times, we should paddle toward the waves, not away from them.

Next, we must always look for disruption. However, only do this when you’re in a strong place. When everything is going perfect in our lives, that is when we start to innovate and look for disruption to capitalize on it. We do not want to wait until we are on a downslide, in the gutter, in the valley of despair, and when everything is going wrong in life. We look to engage disruption long before this point. 

Remember, to look down and in different places too. In business, we are reminded to look for disruption by observing opportunities at the bottom of the market. Disruption very rarely comes from above. Look at what different groups of people are doing—your younger siblings and colleagues, for example. It is not about keeping your head up this time. It is not about doing things the way they have always been done, embrace diversity, and learn from different means. 

Finally, do not get distracted. We can protect ourselves and our efforts from disruption by making sure we understand and focus specifically on what we are trying to solve or achieve. It is important not to lose our focus on what we are trying to solve or achieve, despite the speed at which life pulls us in many different directions. 

Identify and Seize Opportunities

This understanding of disruption is foundational in diagnosing what we can and cannot do in our own lives. It helps us prioritize our efforts, time, money, and resources to grow and build our future capabilities. Disruption will help guide our intuition to identify opportunities quickly and determine which operations are critical to focus on. 

Understanding disruption allows us to highlight what order to complete our tasks, attempt them at all, or possibly outsource the effort. From these concepts, we can manage our strategy as we paddle into the waves of disruption. It gives us a way to objectively take data and turn it into information, and we can use this information to build knowledge. How we turn this knowledge into wisdom in our daily lives is up to us. 

For more advice on a powerful framework you can use to thrive in the face of disruption and change, you can find Surfing Rogue Waves on Amazon.

Eric Pilon-Bignell is a pragmatic futurist focused on addressing disruption by increasing the creative capacity of individuals, teams, and organizations to ignite change, innovation, and foster continuous growth. Eric has an undergraduate degree in engineering, an MBA in Information Systems, and a Ph.D. in Global Leadership. His doctoral work primarily explored complexity sciences centered on executive cognition and their use of intuitive improvisation, decision-making, artificial intelligence, and data-based decision models. When he is not working with clients, researching, or writing, he can be found in the mountains or on the water. He founded PROJECT7 to raise awareness and money for research on brain-related illnesses. Eric is currently working and living with his wife in Chicago, Illinois. To connect or learn more about this book, Eric, or PROJECT7, please visit www.ericpb.me.

Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds

Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds

The following is adapted from Surfing Rogue Waves.

Do you have an “Auntie Karen”? You know, the aunt (or uncle, or sister, or friend, or brother-in-law, or any other friend or family member) that insists on posting things that just aren’t true on social media? Most of us do, and it’s frustrating, because no matter how much you tell Auntie Karen that her facts are wrong, she won’t stop posting crazy things. 

How do we deal with the misinformation that Auntie Karen regularly posts on social media? And why won’t Auntie Karen listen to the facts? Turns out, it all comes down to one thing: confirmation bias. Once you understand that, you can deal much better with the Auntie Karens of the world...and maybe stop yourself from becoming one too.

Processes Aren’t the Problem

When we see misinformation, we want to correct it—this is the deficit model. The next step assumes a rational person will consider new information and change their beliefs depending on the presented strength and accuracy. This is where our saying of “knowledge is power” comes from. But the processes aren’t the problem—people are. If we could simply correct misinformation with facts, fake news and propaganda would go away. 

Research from George Mason University suggests that in some cases, correcting falsehoods on social media about some topics can be effective. The effectiveness of these corrections come from algorithms that suggest related links around the issue or from a personal connection. The research showed how “information from friends might have a greater impact because we trust those closest to us.” 

However, just because you trust someone doesn’t make their beliefs correct. The researchers explain that “if you are somebody who is willing to believe in conspiracies, then you are not affected by corrective information.” These individuals, right or wrong, buy into the misinformation wholesale.

Cultural Values Trump Rationality

The deficit model fails when it comes to misinformation because it assumes we are all rational and our beliefs are correct. Research out of Yale suggests that scientific knowledge is not as important as conforming to cultural values, something we call “cultural cognition.” 

Often, individuals who share and spread untrue facts and stories associate strongly with a partisan position or narrative. Through misrepresentation of information, fake news aligns with how they see both themselves and the world. When they open their social media feeds and see an individual sharing a post of fake political news, their confirmation bias blinds them as they attempt to reinforce their existing perspective. 

When you fact-check Aunt Karen, even with the best of intentions, she sees it as an attack on the core of her identity. To her, you're not presenting facts and data but asking her to change how she sees herself as a person. By fact-checking Aunt Karen, you start a deeply personal fight, not taking part in an objective debate. 

Aunt Karen is basing her real-world decisions and actions on her beliefs, and your challenge presents an emotional argument that challenges and threatens the very meaning of who she believes she is. And by the way, this happens to everyone, not just the Karens of the world.

What Can You Do?

Given all this, what can you do? Do you invest time and resources to correct the false beliefs, or do you simply ignore and “unfollow” your Karens as a means of blocking them from influencing our rational beliefs? 

Well, here’s the bad news. As of right now, there does not seem to be a clear answer. That being said, the answer certainly isn’t to throw up your hands in disgust. There is something you can do: make sure you aren’t a Karen. Also, take heart in the fact that new research in cognitive psychology from the University of Western Australia found that corrections on social media can change individuals’ minds regarding some of the fake news. 

While this does not seem to have a lasting effect, it is worth considering when you’re deciding whether or not to fact-check. If you can do it in a way that doesn’t cause the other person to shut down, and you’re willing to be persistent about it, you may be able to help your Karens understand the facts, at least for a little while.

Misinformation is Dangerous

While it’s true that you’re fighting an uphill battle trying to get Auntie Karen to make decisions based on facts, you have to remember that misinformation is dangerous. 

Fact-checking Aunt Karen for her posts on how we should charge our smartphones in the microwave to prevent the 5G standard for broadband cellular networks responsible for spreading COVID, a disease invented by Bill Gates, is one thing. Yes, microwaving her smartphone becomes an embarrassing, expensive, and explosive experience for her. Still, she’ll probably remain unfazed because, obviously, all corporations and mainstream media are part of the conspiracy and out to get her. 

The real problem is that through complexity, human biases and wrong beliefs get much worse. Aunt Karen blowing up her smartphone in her home can seem funny, but some deep drivers are still at work. The same drivers that convince extremists and nationalists to share bomb-making manuals online or racist conspiracy theories justify systematic failure of the past or terrorism designed to take advantage of weak people and create homicidal tendencies in them. 

Misinformation in our complex age provides a foundation ripe for disaster. Be aware of that, and even more importantly, be aware of cognitive biases, both in yourself and in the people around you.

For more advice on how to overcome cognitive biases, you can find Surfing Rogue Waves on Amazon.

Eric Pilon-Bignell is a pragmatic futurist focused on addressing disruption by increasing the creative capacity of individuals, teams, and organizations to ignite change, innovation, and foster continuous growth. Eric has an undergraduate degree in engineering, an MBA in Information Systems, and a Ph.D. in Global Leadership. His doctoral work primarily explored complexity sciences centered on executive cognition and their use of intuitive improvisation, decision-making, artificial intelligence, and data-based decision models. When he is not working with clients, researching, or writing, he can be found in the mountains or on the water. He founded PROJECT7 to raise awareness and money for research on brain-related illnesses. Eric is currently working and living with his wife in Chicago, Illinois. To connect or learn more about this book, Eric, or PROJECT7, please visit www.ericpb.me.

To Thrive Through Life’s Complexities, You Have to Master This Concept

To Thrive Through Life’s Complexities, You Have to Master This Concept

Our world is complex and can often feel overwhelming. How can we deal with it? Through improvisation. #SurfingRogueWaves

The following is adapted from Surfing Rogue Waves.

The world in which we reside is complex, meaning it is diverse, interconnected, interdependent, and can adapt. The only piece we can control to a certain extent is how we adapt within all this complexity. But how do we do that? How do we adapt in the face of everything coming at us? 

The answer to that question can be found when we ask ourselves a different question: Why was Kelly Slater so much better at surfing than everyone else? His flexibility, paddling strength and speed, and reach were nothing out of the ordinary. No, it was that Slater had “surfing sense.” 

He could anticipate what was about to happen on the water and react to it faster than the competition. He could gather, process, and understand massive amounts of complex information instantaneously. Instead of seeing the linear connection of individual waves forming, Slater fluidly improvised on all his minor predictions of the formations, breakdowns, and re-formations of the patterns he saw. 

Being present in the moment, he would use the constantly evolving spatial and temporal relationships among his position, his board, the forming waves, the other surfers, and the waves’ amplitude and speed to dictate his next thoughts and movements. 

That, then, is the answer to how we can constantly adapt no matter what complexity we’re facing: like Slater, we must learn how to improvise at the highest level. That is how we can use our decisions and actions to shape outcomes in our favor. The only problem? Most of us aren’t even aware of this need, let alone how to consciously do it. But to thrive in the world, that has to change.

Plan and Improvise

We have all, at some point, had to improvise. In fact, research indicates that about 90 percent of your daily decisions are improvised. It’s no wonder, either: research also shows that most plans fail because of the ever-increasing instability and uncertainty of our modern-day world.

Despite all this, most of us still rely on traditional planning methods before we undertake a big task. What should we do instead? Utilize techniques that allow for improvisation when conditions change. Because conditions always change, always. In fact, studies have shown that only 10–30 percent of planned strategies are ever actualized; that means we’re already improvising solutions 70–90 percent of the time.

That leads us to the debate every MBA candidate endures: plan or execute? The answer is both. Have a plan, but only as a framework to guide and direct the execution. That’s right—throw those overengineered business plans out the window.

Learn to Make Off-the-Cuff Decisions

Strategic planning fails because of the unpredictability of the complex and ever-changing landscape. We have to improvise! Unfortunately, research shows that we don’t know how to make the decisions we need to get the desired outcome. We will remain incapable of these decisions without a better understanding of improvisation. 

Since 70–90 percent of our daily choices are improvised, it is worth learning how to make off-the-cuff decisions. Doing nothing is worse than doing something, so why not learn how to do the most useful thing for our desired outcome?

Improvisation is making something from whatever resources or information are available at that moment. While this results in a spontaneous execution with no specific or scripted preparation, we can actually practice improvisation by leveraging our past experiences. Much like in jazz music, improvisation is rooted in exploration and discovery. Instead of being controlled or composed by an individual, jazz musicians use improvisation within a loose framework to create. 

As controlled as we think the world is, improvisation is everywhere. Without it (and GPS), how would you navigate around a road closure on your commute to work? How would you debate with a friend? How do the random ingredients in your fridge turn into a last-minute meal at dinnertime? 

Anytime something does not go entirely to plan, you are improvising on some level. Furthermore, research shows improvisation leads to faster innovation and improved performance. Since the complexity in our lives is changing faster than ever before, improvisation is an essential skill to develop.

The 4 Principles of Improvisation

At this point, you know what important improvisation is. So how do we improvise? At the highest and most general level, there are four principles behind improvisational decisions: 

1. Use spontaneity: Go with your gut. Mention the first thing that comes to mind. Mistakes are opportunities to learn, which involves some rewiring of our brains. Learn to go against the idea to “think before you speak.”

2. Say “Yes, and...”: Always accept ideas. In the moment, as stupid as some of the ideas or suggestions might be from the group around you, do not shut them down. Instead, accept the idea and counter or build off it.

3. Always stay with the group and in the moment: Constantly listen and observe the environment.

4. Make others look good: When we’re in a team, our instinct might be to compete or cast blame for failures; we may want to remove ourselves from the uncomfortable experience. Don’t. Stay in the moment, be with those around you, and work to make each other look good instead of leaning into your instinctive, competitive tendencies. 

These four principles are a great way to practice your improvisation skills. Remember, you already improvise the majority of your decisions; now, just get intentional about practicing, so you’re ready to handle any situation no matter what happens.

Keep Your Systems on Tilt

It’s tempting to think things are less risky when we plan to do them the way we always have. But this is no longer the case. To best transcend our complex future, we need to stay nimble and adaptable, just like Kelly Slater.  

We need to learn to make ad-hoc, improvisational decisions at the moment when insufficient information is available. Improvisation allows us to best leverage the waves of complexity the world throws our way. It is what allows us to thrive.

For more advice on how to thrive in the face of complexity and change, you can find Surfing Rogue Waves on Amazon.

Eric Pilon-Bignell is a pragmatic futurist focused on addressing disruption by increasing the creative capacity of individuals, teams, and organizations to ignite change, innovation, and foster continuous growth. Eric has an undergraduate degree in engineering, an MBA in Information Systems, and a Ph.D. in Global Leadership. His doctoral work primarily explored complexity sciences centered on executive cognition and their use of intuitive improvisation, decision-making, artificial intelligence, and data-based decision models. When he is not working with clients, researching, or writing, he can be found in the mountains or on the water. He founded PROJECT7 to raise awareness and money for research on brain-related illnesses. Eric is currently working and living with his wife in Chicago, Illinois. To connect or learn more about this book, Eric, or PROJECT7, please visit www.ericpb.me.