Daily Denali Update by Angela & Bella - June 2022

June 16

Team is going for the summit. Couldn’t be more proud and happier for them and proud that I got to be part of this team. Here is an call in from Andy, listen here!

June 15

Thank you everyone for the kind notes and messages. I'm still playing catch up, but safely back in civilization. 

"Take your losses like you take your wins.” My dad told me that after I broke my stick over the crossbar in an overtime loss in a game we deserved to win in every way. Still after all these years, the losses you don’t deserve are hard to swallow. 

The weather window right now on Denali is like nothing anyone has seen. It’s perfect, if there was ever a year to climb Denali and have perfect summit weather, it’s now. A chance in a lifetime that has gone to waste, after all the planning, 6months of training and sacrificing from all those around me. It wasn’t that I wasn't strong enough, or that the Denali storms prevented me from summiting. I got COVID. 

It’s hard not to be upset and devastated at first, but now as I start to recover it's turned more to frustration and anger. They say to expect the unexpected on Denali, and I felt I was prepared for that. Weather, injury, sickness, losing a tent, you name it. All of those can happen and you might still have a chance. If you get Covid, the policy is you come down. Selflessly it’s the right move, remaining with your team endangers others of infection.

After all this time never getting Covid, it was a shock to test positive as shitty as I felt. I had a 36 hr trip into anchorage through 5 airports, due to my flight being cancelled (Thank you American Airlines). I must have been exposed somehow.

My experience with Covid at altitude was not good. I had a fever and was completely exhausted like never before. After a full rest day, in an attempt to recover, my condition worsened. I began to produce blood from my sinuses and cough. 

Altitude concerns of worsening conditions made the decision to descend more immediate. After taking 20 mins to pack, I started my descent down, which took a little over 18 hours. As frustrating as this was, it was the right decision. I was a distraction on our team (although no one made me feel this way), on a climb that had so much else that could go wrong. To be in isolation in my own tent required someone to sleep in a dugout snow cave and others in the cook tent. The rest of the team thankfully tested negative, they moved to high camp shortly after I left and are making the final hours of their summit push as we speak!! In a perfect weather window that they very well deserve. 

Having Covid is unique because people can’t really be close to you and help you. I was able to rope up with one of the other teams coming down off the summit. My descent was still eventful. After a break at one of the lower camps for food, water and quick rest, we decided to continue through the lower glacier since temperatures had remained cold that afternoon. All my travel before this has been throughout the night (we started most of the climbs between 12-2am.). 

My rope partner fell into a crevasse shortly after we left camp one that late afternoon. Never realizing the importance of proper mountain safety until you are in it, what could have been fatal, was simply a 10-15min delay. The other rope team immediately came over, helped support my line and within a few minutes we had him pulled out of the crevasse and we were back on our way. With several other deaths on the mountain over this past month, it's a quick reminder to never take shortcuts on safety in the mountains, the risks are real. 

I feel fortunate my team did not test positive and they will get the summit they very much earned. I am fortunate to have much in life to look forward to and to return home to - friends, work, family, my wife and dog, my health and returning with all of my digits. So many reasons to look forward to coming home, but if I'm being honest, this one still really hurts.

Thank you everyone for the support and kind words. Also thank you all so much for the donations, the goal that was surpassed in less time than it took me to get from Chicago to Anchorage (less 36hours).

Cheers, 

Eric

June 11

I am sorry to report that Eric has tested positive for COVID while on the side of a mountain. He is now isolating in a tent on Mount Denali. He had a headache and was feeling exhausted but is doing much better with some rest and medication. Know that he is safe and doing well otherwise.

Next steps are to plan to get out of the altitude - we anticipate a few days, and eventually off the mountain. We are very sad that he will have to stop his summit attempt. I saw how hard he worked for this in the last 6 months, and he started out this climb extremely strong considering. Also how safe he has been the last few years and never caught COVID until the worst possible time. The most important thing to us right now is that he is safe and doing well.

I’m sure this post is creating many q’s - but don’t worry, the blog won’t stop here, part of climbing is to be prepared for unexpected events…… stay tuned……… when Eric is back and rested he will take over with an update. Check back in a few days.

June 10

I heard from Eric quickly. All is good - although he’s still not feeling 100%. WiIl have an update later - most likely tomorrow since they are 3 hours behind in Alaska.

June 8

Crickets……………….

June 7

Just heard from Eric - They are in a snow storm! They are doing well but need to conserve batteries etc. He will report back after the storm passes.

Camp 2

Update from yesterday just came in from Mountain Trip. Read below.

Update from Mountain Trip: Lead guide Ty called in last night from Camp 2 at 11,200′ (3413m). Yesterday the team packed up personal gear, tents, cookware, etc. and started their day by climbing 1,200′ (365m) up Ski Hill. After topping out on Ski Hill the team experienced rolling terrain as they approached their cache site at 10,200′ (3108m) from the day before. Here, the route jogs to climbers right and continues to climb up into a small basin where Camp 2 resides. It’s only about 2.75 miles but climbs 3,200′ (975m) in that short span. Camp 2 lies at the base of some astounding seracs (large usually column like blocks of ice that form on steep parts of a glacier) and steep granite faces. The team got to bed early last night so they could descend back to their cache site today in the cool of the morning. After returning to camp, the team finished their active rest day with some snacks, some naps, and probably some skills practice as well as they prepare to climb some steeper terrain leaving Camp 2. Skills practice for this part of the expedition would include crampon and ice ax familiarization.

June 6

Camp 2

The June 2nd team made it to Camp 2 today!

Heard from Eric today. Sending him energy - he’s feeling tired and a bit run down from the long travel.

Recording from Ty: https://api.twilio.com/2010-04-01/Accounts/ACdfb9ce9f7a364ec0953eef792a6e9a46/Recordings/RE82db1495db122de67df20fe1bdc7de6b.mp3

June 5

Leaving Camp 1

Woke up to a bit of snow today. Carried their gear from Camp 1 up to 11,000’ and then back down to Camp 1. The plan is a full move to Camp 2 tomorrow.

A MESSAGE FROM ERIC (to listen, copy and paste link in your browser): https://api.twilio.com/2010-04-01/Accounts/ACdfb9ce9f7a364ec0953eef792a6e9a46/Recordings/REe0beb3964b7b42af7b257d92f509b67c.mp3

Leaving Camp 1

Photo from a 2021 team.

Update from Mountain Trip: The team was able to put in their first cache at 10,200′ (3108m). Caching is a great system that is indicative of an expedition style of climbing. Teams will pick supplies; gear, food, fuel, etc. that are not needed for a few days and climb to a point between the camp they currently reside at and the one they will move to next. Here they dig a meter deep hole, pile in their supplies, and bury it with a mound of snow. They will mark it with a GPS point and a 6 foot bamboo wand which bears their team tag. Today the team will move up to Camp 2, and tomorrow they will return to 10,200′ (3108m) to retrieve their cache. This method of “climb high, sleep low” gives teams a better chance to acclimate and also lightens their 110lb loads quite a bit, making the climb a bit easier.

Eric checked in twice today on his gps saying ‘checking in, everything is ok.’ You can see where he is on a map via the link at the top of this page.

Nims is on Denali?

The legend from 14 peaks is apparently on Denali climbing as well. The movie is amazing if you haven’t seen it. I wonder if Eric will meet him?!

June 4

The climb.

It starts. The first trek that could take up to 6hrs, they crushed it in 5hrs! Way to go team! Starting off strong.

Report From Mountain trip: One of our guides, Ackerman, updates us from Camp 1 last night! The team woke up bright and early at 2am in the twilight of the morning and left camp a few hours later as the sun began its early northern sunrise. Sounds like it took the team less than 5 hours to travel the 5.5 miles and 1,000′ of elevation gain to Camp 1. Leaving camp is no small task. The team woke up and got water melting, coffee brewing, and breakfast cooking. In the meantime, those not in the cook tent were packing up their gear and the tents. All of these items are packed strategically in packsacks and sleds. Everyone ties into their rope teams and then the team is finally ready to take off. Leaving Camp 1 the team first descended 600′ down Heartbreak Hill. Basecamp is located on the Southeast Fork of the Kahiltna Glacier. Like a tributary flowing to a river, the southeast fork flows downhill to meet the main body of the Kahiltna Glacier. A 40 mile long frozen river.

At this time of year, teams will travel at night mainly because the glacier will be frozen and solid. Which means snow bridges spanning crevasses will be more stable. But it also more comfortable to travel at this time of day. Even though the team is traveling on snow, these elevations see temps reaching the freezing point, which feel wicked hot on a clear calm day with a bright sun. Now the team can sleep during the daylight hours before getting ready for their next move.

Check out the recording from Ackerman: https://api.twilio.com/2010-04-01/Accounts/ACdfb9ce9f7a364ec0953eef792a6e9a46/Recordings/REf4037c8ee96e1f6a66f97a3df372f66d.mp3

June 3

6:30pm - got to base camp safely! Did some practicing of skills and heading to Camp 1 tomorrow - departing at 4am. Off to a great start!

Flying into base camp.

Here’s what it would look like - Eric can no longer send pics so I will be using pics from previous trips so you can get the idea.

Listen to the recording from the lead guide Ty here: https://api.twilio.com/2010-04-01/Accounts/ACdfb9ce9f7a364ec0953eef792a6e9a46/Recordings/REb71f381d456fa3f36f21be0bce1c51a9.mp3

The team!

Packed the plane and ready to fly out to the Glacier. Boots on ready to go!!! (Eric on the left!)

Talkeetna

Arrived in Talkeetna.

Go Time!

The team is packed up and waiting for their bus. Trying to get a head start - ahead of the snow. Expecting 6-12”/day. May be a slow start - but the team is prepared for all scenarios! Go June 2 team! Get it!

June 2

Well Eric finally made it to Anchorage. We are soooooo relieved. Check out the journey below.

Amazing news - Eric hit his fundraising goal faster than he was able to get to Anchorage. Thank you all so much for your support of Eric on this journey of a lifetime and your support towards something very important to us - Brain research. We are incredibly thankful for your contribution. If you want to donate you can get to his donation page from the Project7 tab above.

Eric is a bit late to the party so he is getting organized and caught up with the team. They start their journey tomorrow morning at 6am, so he’s also going to get some rest. Goodnight!! Bonne nuit!!

Gear is here!!!

Thank you mountain gods! The relief and joy on Eric’s face:) …..similar to the relief we felt back home went he sent this photo update.

Anchorage

MADE IT!!! Finally. Final stop - Unfortunately bags didn’t make it on this flight - we are told to wait for the next inbound from Seattle for bags in an hour and they might be on there…… kinda need that gear to live on a glacier…….. try not to panic.

Juneau

3rd stop - In Alaska….. Interesting to learn about the Whitehorse/Juneau old timer’s hockey league….. Basically Canada up there.

Seattle

Second stop - 10mins to catch the next flight.

Vegas Baby

First stop - great people watching but not an ideal place to spend the night.

June 1: Chicago to Alaska

The next best option - 4 flights in 24hrs………………..

Oh boy - flight cancelled WTF?!

Packed and Heading to the airport

Meet the Team

WELCOME! Here is where you can follow Eric’s and the team’s journey up the frozen arctic slopes of The Great One (Denali). This team will join many others as they climb Denali via the classic West Buttress Route which will climb over 13,000 feet from Basecamp on the South East Fork of the Kahiltna Glacier to the sky scraping 20,310 foot (6,190 meter) summit!

Majestic Denali rises a full 18,000 feet (5,486 meters) above its surrounding landscape. That’s 5,000 feet MORE than the elevation relief of Mt Everest! Due to its location so close to the Arctic Circle, conditions can often be very winter like well into the summer months. Around the Summer Solstice, the Alaska Range experiences over 20 hours of daylight, and even in the depths of night the sun never truly sets, making headlamps unnecessary and eye masks essential. The West Buttress will lead the team through heavily glaciated terrain from Basecamp on the Kahiltna Glacier at 7,200′, to Camp One at 7,800′, Camp Two at 11,200′, Camp Three at 14,200′, High Camp at 17,200′, to–conditions permitting–the 20,310′ summit.

Here’s the crew!

• Gavin Syndercombe

• Andy Baatz

• Brian Alexander

• Daniel Gallagher

• Caroline Buckland

• Eric Pilon-Bignell

The Mountain Trip team has been guiding up Denali for many years, The expedition will be lead by head guide Ty Guarino, his 6th time on the mountain and assisted by leads Carly Casternovia  and Michael Ackerman.

Throughout the team’s expedition, please keep in mind the adage of “no news is good news!” in terms of the updates from the field. There are some days when certain circumstances, like poor satellite phone reception (this happens frequently at Camp 2 at 11,200′, as it is situated in a high-alpine basin with massive peaks on all sides), fatigue from a particularly long day, no change in their situation due to weather, etc., will prevent teams from calling in an update. Friends and family are encouraged to leave comments for Eric on this expedition, but keep in mind that he will not be able to see posts or comments until he returns to Talkeetna after the end of their expedition, once they leave the glacier.

Denali Factoid: Ever wonder what happens to all the trash and… other stuff? Well it all has to come out with you, I mean ALL of it. Since 2001 the Park Service has been using Clean Mountain Cans to assist climbers in bringing their excrements off the mountain. An essential action to preserve these frozen slopes which tend to preserve things in their place for decades. Read about it on the NPS blog here.

Don’t forget you can follow along on Eric’s GPS here https://share.garmin.com/EricPB

Itinerary (in theory…)

The Route

In theory, the route and the camps taken to summit Denali!

Denali is a big, serious mountain with big mountain weather, geography and acclimatization issues. You carry 130-150 lbs between your pack and your sled, in June it still has artic weather that drops below -40 degrees, heavy snow fall, and winds that can exceed +100 mph. There is not the traditional support systems of many large mountain expeditions, there is not a large established base camp, there are no yaks, no porters or Sherpas. There is only you, your team, your pack and your sled. Being in one of coldest places on the planet, that can only be accessed by a float plane with snow skis if the weather is good, experienced planning is a must. The following itinerary represents a basic outline of what could happen on a given day during the course of a Denali expedition. Many factors can—and likely will—contribute to cause the following schedule to change. Mountain Trip has been leading teams up this mountain for many many years, this agenda below is never exactly followed but one of the best blue prints for success. Mountain Trip, based in Alaska, is one of only a few authorized concessionaires of Denali National Park and Preserve. After much research and speaking with previous climbers of Denali, they are also one of the best.

June 1: CHICAGO. Flight from Chicago to Anchorage, check in hotel around midnight. Get up early tomorrow to meet with the team, expedition orientation and equipment check.

June 2: MEET IN ANCHORAGE. Our Team Meeting is scheduled at 10 a.m. for an expedition orientation and equipment check.

June 3: TRAVEL TO TALKEETNA AND FLY TO THE GLACIER. The drive takes a bit more than two hours, and we’ll stop for coffee and snacks along the way. Once in Talkeetna, we’ll need to unload, organize, and weigh all of our equipment and supplies in preparation for our flight to the glacier. We will also finish the registration process with the National Park Service (NPS) and attend a pre-climb orientation provided by one of the NPS climbing rangers. After finalizing all the NPS admin steps, we’ll fly to the glacier, weather permitting. Once on the Southeast Fork of the Kahiltna Glacier, we’ll be busy establishing our camp for the night.

June 4: SINGLE CARRY TO 7,800′ CAMP. Departing base camp, we’ll drop down the infamous Heartbreak Hill and onto the broad Kahiltna Glacier. Our goal will be to move camp to about 7,800′, near the junction with the NE Fork of the Kahiltna Glacier. This is a moderately tough day of about 5 miles and is a good warm up for the upcoming days. Throughout the expedition we will typically follow the “climb high, sleep low” technique for better acclimatization; however, the altitude difference between Base Camp and 7,800′ Camp is minimal enough to permit us to generally “single-carry” this stretch. Being a June expedition, we may climb early in the morning to avoid excessive heat and soft snow conditions on the lower glacier.

*Quick Stats: 8 km / 5 miles, with 365 m / 1,200’ of elevation gain. Climbing Time: ~ 4.5-6 hours.

June 5: HAUL LOADS UP TO KAHILTNA PASS. We’ll head out of 7,800′ Camp and carry loads up the 1,800′ Ski Hill. Several options exist for campsites between 9,000′ and 11,000′, depending upon weather, snow conditions and team strength. This is a moderately difficult carry of 7-9 miles round-trip, with 2,000′-3,000′ of elevation gain and a return to 7,800′ Camp for the night.

*Quick Stats: 12.87 km / 8 miles round trip, with 670 m / 2,200’ of elevation gain and loss. Climbing Time: ~ 6-8 hours.

June 6: MOVE EVERYTHING TO 11,000′ CAMP. Our second camp is often in the 11,000’ basin at the base of Motorcycle Hill. This is an incredibly beautiful location that basks in alpenglow when the sun travels around the north side of the mountain.

*Quick Stats: 7.64 km / 4.75 miles one way, with 1,036 m / 3,400’ of elevation gain. Climbing Time: ~ 5.5-7 hours.

June 7: BACK-CARRY DAY. This is an “active rest day” during which we drop back down and pick up the cache we left near Kahiltna Pass. It also helps give us another day to acclimatize before moving higher.

*Quick Stats: 2.4 km / 1.5 miles round trip, with 365 m / 1,200’ of elevation loss and gain. Climbing Time: 1.5 hours round-trip.

June 8: HAUL LOADS AROUND WINDY CORNER (13,300′). Steep snow climbing up the 1,000′ high Motorcycle Hill rewards climbers with spectacular views. The total distance for the day is about four miles round trip with a little over 2,000′ of elevation gain. Fun climbing with crampons and an ice axe gets us around Windy Corner where the upper mountain comes into view.

*Quick Stats: 6.43 km / 4 miles, with 700 m / 2,300’ of elevation gain. Climbing Time: ~ 6-7 hours round-trip.

June 9: MOVE CAMP TO 14,200′. This is usually a long, hard day. Our next camp is generally located at the well-equipped 14,200’ Camp in the expansive Genet Basin. Loads are getting lighter and the air is getting thinner. Upon arrival, everyone will need to pitch in to build our camp as we need to fortify our tents due to severe winds.

*Quick Stats: 4 km / 2.5 miles, with 914 m / 3,200’ of elevation gain. Climbing Time: ~ 5-7 hours.

June 10: BACK-CARRY DAY. This is another “active rest day,” during which the team will descend from Genet Basin to the Windy Corner cache and bring everything up to 14,200′.

*Quick Stats: 1.6 km / 1 mile round-trip, with 213 m / 700’ of elevation loss and gain. Climbing Time: ~ 1.5 hours round-trip.

June 11: CLIMB UP THE HEADWALL TO THE RIDGE. Our goal is to cache supplies up on the ridge above us and return to 14,200 feet. Climbing up the “Headwall” (the section of route with fixed lines running from 15,500′ to 16,100′) with a heavy pack makes this one of the more strenuous days of the trip because of the steep terrain, heavy pack and thinning air.

*Quick Stats: 3.8 km / 2.4 miles round-trip, with 670 m / 2,200’ of elevation gain and loss. Climbing Time: ~ 5-7 hours.

June 12: REST DAY. It is often prudent to take a rest/acclimatization day prior to moving up to High Camp. 

June 13: MOVE TO HIGH CAMP. Weather and team strength will again determine this decision. While there is a camp site at 16,100′, it is very exposed, so we usually push for the 17,200′ site, which is more secure and the better choice for camp. This is a really tough day, as our loads are big and some of the the terrain we will negotiate is steep. Rewards for our work are in the awesome climbing along the ridge. Weaving in and out of the rocks and occasionally walking a knife-edge stretch, combined with big exposure, should make this day one of the most memorable of the route assuming all goes well.

*Quick Stats: 3.21 km / 2 miles, with 914 m / 3,000’ of elevation gain. Climbing Time: ~ 6-8 hours.

June 14: REST DAY. Moving to 17,200’ and getting High Camp established can be a huge day, so we usually take a rest day before attempting the summit.  Circumstances could mean that we do not take this rest day, but if possible, we will prefer to take it.

June 15: SUMMIT DAY. If the weather is favorable, we’ll push for the summit. It is important to be patient on a big peak like Denali and we will only try for the summit when the weather is good. The round-trip climb will take 12-16 hours or more. We will plan to depart camp early (7-10 a.m.), climb up to Denali Pass (18,000’) and follow the route past Arch Deacon’s Tower and the Football Field to the slopes leading to the Summit Ridge. Stay focused up the ridge, tag the summit, and bust out a few selfies as proof.

*Quick Stats: 8 km / 5 miles round-trip, with 914 m / 3,000’ of elevation gain and loss. Climbing Time: ~12+ hours

Summit Day is Serious - The weather needs to be good and everyone attempting the summit must be in good health and strength. This is the most grueling day both mentally and physically, of the expedition (many climbers say of their lives!). Our team lead, Ty, will make the ultimate decision as to when the team will make a summit bid.

June 16-17: DESCENT. The descent from High Camp takes one to two days, depending on our strength. The descent can beat you up more than the ascent, as we will be shouldering our heaviest loads of the trip climbing down from High Camp to Camp 2. Weather dictates when we can fly out to Talkeetna for well deserved food and showers.

June 18-24 CONTINGENCY DAYS. We build seven “contingency days” into our schedule. Denali has a well-deserved reputation for arctic weather, and it is common to take weather days at some point on the mountain.

June 25: RETURN TO ANCHORAGE AND FLY HOME. If you can find a flight…

May 28th

Packing & prep - this is about 1/2 of the load. Denali does not have porters or yacks, therefore you must carry everything (about 130-150lbs) between your pack and sled.

Angela & Bella

Newest bloggers to the universe, the lucky ones selected to update Eric and his Team’s progress up Denali.

Adventures and Training

Eric dragging a tire and carrying a weighted pack around downtown Chicago in the middle of the winter

Weighted pack carry on incline trainer, while carb loading #loveandpizza

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Why the Human Brain is Far More Than Just an Intelligent Machine

Understanding how our brains work—and what its shortcomings are—lets us be more rational and better understand the truth.

Thrive Global invites voices from many spheres to share their perspectives on our Community platform. Community stories are not commissioned by our editorial team, and opinions expressed by Community contributors do not reflect the opinions of Thrive Global or its employees. More information on our Community guidelines is available here.

By Dr. Eric Pilon-Bignell

The following is adapted from Surfing Rogue Waves.

Did you know that your brain is a supercomplex system of billions upon billions of nerves that communicate with the rest of your body within fractions of seconds? This system can arrange patterns that systemize your emotions, behaviors, and thoughts, both consciously and unconsciously. 

Our brains necessitate higher sensory perception functions, motor commands, spatial reasoning, and language—all uniquely human things. Do we fully understand, structurally, how billions of loosely coupled neurons, firing around on synapses, give rise to these incredible functions? In some cases, yes. In others, not so much. 

Our brains allow our intelligence, and this intelligence created our scientific mind. Science is proven through reliable and repeatable experiments. Through science, we now know how modern-day humans came to be. Evolution and our brains’ development help us understand how humans developed into the dominant race on Earth. 

Why should you care about any of this? Is anything about this important? Or are these just some random facts—interesting, perhaps, but not particularly relevant to your life? 

Turns out, there is relevance: when we understand these concepts, and understand how and why our brains are more than just intelligent machines, we can look inward to find and correct the things that don’t work, while enhancing what does. In other words, understanding how our brains work—and what its shortcomings are—lets us be more rational and better understand the truth. And that, I think you’ll agree, is something our world desperately needs right now. 

More Information Isn’t Always Better

Humans make mistakes. One-off mistakes are usually due to insufficient data or knowledge needed to make a decision—it happens, but these aren’t the kinds of mistakes we need to worry over. After all, these are the types of mistakes where we can gather new information and make better decisions and fewer errors in the future. 

For example, imagine you were washing freshly picked apples from a barrel. You reach into the barrel and pull out an apple because that’s all you think is in the barrel. You could believe that there are only apples in the barrel. 

But as you pull out more items, you find that there are also potatoes in the barrel. With this new information, it would be rational for you to no longer conclude that there were only apples in the barrel. 

But you must be careful. There are traps! There are situations where the information you get is gained from biased methods. In those instances, more information could make your prediction worse. 

Beware of Bias

Let’s look at how bias might lead to inaccuracies. Imagine once again using our example of the apple and potato barrel. Instead of a small barrel, we have a large deep barrel. 

Now imagine that the huge barrel is filled with water to soak 100 apples and/or potatoes. Now picture that you were asked to reach in above your head, so you cannot look into the barrel, and pull them out one at a time and guess the makeup of apples versus potatoes left inside. 

At first, you would pull out an apple, but being aware that more information is more accurate, you proceed to pull out another 40 apples in a row. After pulling out so many apples and not a single potato, you would likely conclude that the barrel is made up entirely of apples. 

However, what you fail to understand is that apples float, and potatoes sink. There could very well be many more potatoes than apples in the barrel. 

This is a systemic error in which the sample is significantly underrepresented in a specific direction; your bias led you to draw the wrong conclusion. The key is to keep the potential for bias in mind to prevent yourself from making avoidable mistakes when assessing new information. 

We All Have Cognitive Biases

Humans are fallible to far more than just data-based traps; others come from the very architecture of our brain. Human minds are famous for having cognitive biases. Unlike random, one-off errors from having limited information or misusing data, cognitive biases are functional errors in how we think and draw us further away from the truth. Worse yet, we learn our cognitive biases; it is not the result of our evolution. 

Throughout our evolution, understanding and knowing truth has never been essential to our survival. Historically, as individuals, it was more important to believe what others believed so we could get along in our communities, regardless of what may or may not have been true. 

However, things have changed. Understanding cognitive biases is essential, especially at the speed our world is moving and changing, to determining where we might end up. Biases may have mattered less in the snail-paced, linear world our ancestors lived in, but accurately mapping our actions and understanding of today’s real world are now more important than ever. 

Luckily for us—because they are far more than just intelligent machines—our brains have the ability to understand and become aware of our own cognitive biases. How? Because we have the ability to think rationally.

Rationality is Key

Rationality is about forming and using our beliefs to make decisions that most accurately reflect what will happen in the real world. It’s a way to increase our chances of being correct, without necessarily always being correct.

It is best to look at rationality in two concepts: epistemic rationality and instrumental rationality. Epistemic rationality is when we work to improve the accuracy of our beliefs systematically. The art of believing informs our new beliefs based on new evidence. Think of this as upgrading how our beliefs can most closely match the truth—it’s an attempt to map our beliefs to the realities of the world. 

Instrumental rationality is when we systematically achieve our values. This is the art of choosing actions that lead to outcomes and then ranking these actions higher in our preferences. 

Rationality Must Define Our Decisions 

Here’s where we bring it out of the realm of the theoretical and back to how this affects how we all live our lives. Our rationality defines the decisions we make and the actions we take. Living in a world of constant flux, we no longer have the luxury of a fixed, controlled environment to analyze our options before acting. 

The way we address our challenges today is vastly different from how previous generations tackled them. Today we are in a constant state of improvisation as we attempt to keep up with the onslaught of disruptions and changes that persistently emerge in life. 

The increasingly interconnected and interdependent world is driving such rapid change that we stand little chance of surviving without considering how complexity impacts us. We must understand that our brains are far more than intelligent machines, that they are capable of identifying and overcoming our cognitive biases. We must learn to think rationally if we want to make optimal, everyday decisions. It truly is the only way to survive and, more importantly, thrive.

For more advice on how to implement a framework to overcome cognitive biases and make the best decisions in any situation, you can find Surfing Rogue Waves on Amazon.

Eric Pilon-Bignell is a pragmatic futurist focused on addressing disruption by increasing the creative capacity of individuals, teams, and organizations to ignite change, innovation, and foster continuous growth. Eric has an undergraduate degree in engineering, an MBA in Information Systems, and a Ph.D. in Global Leadership. His doctoral work primarily explored complexity sciences centered on executive cognition and their use of intuitive improvisation, decision-making, artificial intelligence, and data-based decision models. When he is not working with clients, researching, or writing, he can be found in the mountains or on the water. He founded PROJECT7 to raise awareness and money for research on brain-related illnesses. Eric is currently working and living with his wife in Chicago, Illinois. To connect or learn more about this book, Eric, or PROJECT7, please visit www.ericpb.me.

— Published on August 26, 2021

“In Surfing Rogue Waves, Eric Pilon-Bignell likens new innovations to ocean waves. Rather than getting overtaken by them, Pilon-Bignell walks readers through ways to “surf” everything from ripples to tsunamis.”

AI Isn’t Coming: It’s Already Here, And It Will Just Keep Evolving

AI Isn’t Coming: It’s Already Here, And It Will Just Keep Evolving

The following is adapted from Surfing Rogue Waves.

People seem to either love or hate talking about artificial intelligence. Yet, it’s not up for debate. Non-biological forms of intelligence are all around us in our everyday lives, whether or not we choose to accept it. 

The US military has already implanted chips into human brains to advance our knowledge and understanding of how to treat and cure individuals suffering from combat trauma and post-traumatic stress disorder. In other studies, we have seen how doctors and researchers can cure acute depression by implanting electrodes directly in the brain of patients.

Today, using just our minds, paralyzed individuals can move bionic limbs and operate computers. There are wireless remote-control technologies that allow individuals to control connected items in their homes through a “mind-reading” electric helmet-like device. The list of how AI impacts us goes on and on.   

All of this progress assumes the human biological brain will remain the central, controlling element of intelligence. However, is that a safe assumption to make? What are the ethical considerations we should be considering? Those are questions worth thinking about, right now, by every single person on this planet, because AI isn’t coming. It’s here, and it affects all of us.

Lack of AI Transparency 

In 2018, Meredith Whittaker, a research scientist at New York University and co-founder of the AI Now Institute, highlighted how AI systems cause many deep concerns around the process, transparency, ability to examine or inspect, and accountability of predictive analytics. 

The day is rapidly approaching (if it’s not already here) when it could not only be impossible for the average person to understand how AI systems make decisions—even the technical experts who created the technology may not have the visibility to understand how the system made the decision. The reality is that many of the machine-learning AI systems work blindly. 

The complete lack of visibility and understanding into how a decision is made creates a major problem around bias in the decision system. We not only lose the ability to remove the bias from the system, but we will not even be aware if bias is happening at all. And yes, machines can be biased. In fact, most technology, AI, programs, and machines are built around bias.

Only as Good as the Data 

We can’t just consider lack of transparency when thinking about the impacts of AI on our world. Due to our humanistic shortcomings in how we make decisions, AI systems are popular because of how they outperform the best of us in predictive-based decision-making. Our reliance and comfort on these automated decisions continue to grow without any awareness of the impacts. 

In less significant situations, the predictive decision carries a relatively low risk. However, these predictive decisions are being used more in applications with higher risks and consequences, like in medicine, where these AI systems are used to identify cancers or treat patients.

Where do we draw the line? Should we allow AI to make life-or-death decisions? Should they make decisions in our legal systems to see who is granted bail and who serves more time? Should these AI systems predict our policing or military actions? Should they decide which target is a threat and how that threat should be suppressed or terminated? Is it too early to call AI “they”? 

For many, the answer would be no. What if the AI systems are not perfect but significantly better and more accurate than what a human could do? What then? Systems capable of predictive data analysis are often more accurate and significantly cheaper. As they continue to evolve, they will become cheaper again and most likely continue to increase in popularity. But they have bias, and they are only as good as the data they use.

How Much Bias Do We Allow?

Even if we’re aware of an AI’s bias, it’s still important to take a good hard look at how much bias we allow. An AI system developed to be highly sensitive to bias would also have to be much more myopic in its abilities. It would have trouble with large amounts of complexity, and vice versa for less-sensitive biased algorithms that would welcome complexity but be much more prone to bias. Who decides how much of what is OK?

These problems and many questions should be addressed before the system is created. But this is rarely the case. It’s hard to determine the ethics when we aren’t even sure what the system can do. 

This is not a futuristic concept or problem; we have seen many of these technological biases creep into our current world, organizations, and governments already. For example, Amazon’s automated recruitment system used for vetting potential employees discriminated toward women’s employment, something Amazon had an issue with long before AI showed up. This system was discontinued in 2017 by Amazon once the bias was identified. 

Human-Robot Interaction

There’s another angle to consider: Human-Robot Interaction (HRI). HRI is exactly what it sounds like, humans and robots interacting together. We see this more and more in both our personal and professional lives. In a world in which humans and machines are stronger together than on their own, this tidal wave of a partnership shows no sign of slowing down anytime soon. 

How do robots care for humans beyond what we see in service or medical settings? 

Once again, we’re facing a conversation that makes many people uncomfortable, and discomfort and tension put us right in the middle of a barrel, meaning it must be addressed. The idea also overlaps with the areas of deception. 

Do we dehumanize the caring aspect of “taking care” of someone? Or do we humanize the AI experience for the sick, ill, elderly, or in need of care? What if humanizing this experience makes patients happier and increases their longevity? If this is the case, and we choose to humanize care, we are deceitful since AI systems cannot actually “care” for anything. 

Where do we draw the line when deceiving what models of AI systems are acceptable and those that are not? With a large demographic of well-funded baby boomer generationals now needing care, AI systems are filling in the care gaps in healthcare. When is it OK to lie a little to people about the treatment they receive? Who gets to decide what is being done for the patient’s “own good”?

How Does Technology Impact Society?

Everything we discuss in AI comes down to the same handful of systems: the transparency of AI systems, data, the security of systems, and so on. Many existing governing bodies have already started to build out much of the standards around specific applications of autonomous systems. 

Autonomous air, water, and ground systems are already a megatrend from which we can dream up many world-changing applications, as well as potential nightmares—like with autonomous weapon systems. Suddenly, it’s not just a matter of the ethics of the technology, but how the technology impacts the society it exists within.

We need to consider these questions, and we need to do it now. AI is here, it’s evolving, and it’s not going away. If we are to have any hope of directing the ethics of AI, we must start the conversation now.

For more advice on how AI is shaping our world, you can find Surfing Rogue Waves on Amazon.

Eric Pilon-Bignell is a pragmatic futurist focused on addressing disruption by increasing the creative capacity of individuals, teams, and organizations to ignite change, innovation, and foster continuous growth. Eric has an undergraduate degree in engineering, an MBA in Information Systems, and a Ph.D. in Global Leadership. His doctoral work primarily explored complexity sciences centered on executive cognition and their use of intuitive improvisation, decision-making, artificial intelligence, and data-based decision models. When he is not working with clients, researching, or writing, he can be found in the mountains or on the water. He founded PROJECT7 to raise awareness and money for research on brain-related illnesses. Eric is currently working and living with his wife in Chicago, Illinois. To connect or learn more about this book, Eric, or PROJECT7, please visit www.ericpb.me.

Podcast: ValueVerse

"I love the way that [Eric's] mind works"

"we need guys like [Eric], because it's hard to be in that headspace and I think the work [Eric] is doing is so important and meaningful to help individuals turn their heads and look at those things that are uncomfortable or that you are not aware of. "

"it’s a brilliant way to look at it. It's the decision making, especially in business and life that can really affect the trajectory of where you end up." - Kawan Karadaghi

To Adapt and Grow, Learn to Rationally Improvise

To Adapt and Grow, Learn to Rationally Improvise

The following is adapted from Surfing Rogue Waves.

Have you ever stopped to consider that our world places us at the center of an extremely complex system with constant additions of emerging information? To keep up, we have to react quickly. 

Not only that, but the ever-increasing changes are just going to get more intense over time. There’s no question about it: if we want to survive and thrive in our rapidly shifting world (both individually and as a species), we must be able to adapt to and grow with these changes.

Improvisation—or more accurately, rational improvisation—is the key to doing this. After all, without improvisation, how can we deal with (or better yet, seek out and embrace) the disruptions that are on their way? Because make no mistake, major disruptions are coming.

Look for the Disruption

The first step in rationally improvising is to look for pressures we feel, both perceived and real. Of course, we all face lots of different pressure, so we must be able to filter for the right kind of pressure. 

To do that, ask yourself some simple questions. Is this pressure forcing you to try something new or create a new relationship? Is this pressure because you believe you are right but worry someone might prove you wrong? Are you in a situation where you have no choice but to figure out a solution? This is the pressure we look for, and this is how you know when the disruption is creeping up on you. 

Maybe you changed professions, and you’re in your new job. Your goal isn’t to be the best at your job overnight but to slowly get better over time. As you put in the time, and you apply new ways of doing and thinking about things from your past, you get to the same level as your colleagues. Eventually, you even pass them. 

At this point, you can kick your feet up and get comfortable, or you can start hunting for the pressure again. Where is the next disruption? The more comfortable you get using this approach to everything in your life, the more successful you will be as a disruptor.

Leverage Your Strengths

Part of learning to adapt and grow through rational improvisation is leveraging your strengths. Being in an uncomfortable situation gives you an opportunity to lean into the tension by leveraging your strengths. Your strengths tend to be instinctive; they help you improvise and adapt to the moment. 

To thrive in the face of disruption, we need to identify our strengths and build off of them, and we must be willing to fall back on them when needed. Your strengths are what you do better and more instinctively than anyone else. Find out what they are and own them.

For example, you might find a job posting and push yourself to apply and compete for it if you feel it is worth your investment. Although you might feel this pressure, it is not overly disruptive. Now imagine a second example where you identify a problem at work. You could work to persuade and convince those in a position to create this new job to solve this problem. 

In the first situation, you are challenging yourself; we could call it sustainable innovation. You will only get a posted job if you already have many of the skills, nothing new, but possibly building on your past experience. There is well-established demand for the need. If you don’t get it, someone else will. 

The second option is creating something entirely new. Disruption theory states that those who create truly new market disruptions are six times more likely to succeed. There is no clear competition; there are no predetermined expectations, just uncharted water and waves. 

You Can Disrupt Even When You’re Busy

If you feel your day-to-day is already beyond capacity with obligations in life and work, you are not alone. However, it doesn’t mean you can’t seek out and leverage disruptions. Take it slow: to disrupt ourselves on a macro level, we start by disrupting on a micro level. So, find a way to give yourself a little more time to think differently. 

Maybe you get up ten, fifteen, twenty minutes earlier, skip checking your phone, and use this time to meditate, think, create, or explore something different. Or maybe you give up the one to two hours of Netflix and replace it with something just as relaxing that allows you to think more. 

Maybe you go for a walk; maybe you read a book, perhaps you do anything other than look at your phone. Maybe you play chess. Disruption author Whitney Johnson says that you should “look for opportunities to play where other people aren’t playing, where other people don’t want to play. You will be surprised how many opportunities come to you when you’re willing to play in those unusual places.”

There’s No One-Size-Fits-All Approach

Part of what makes this process successful is that it’s improvised. It does not prescribe or lay out specific sequential steps. It is designed to empower and establish an understanding that lends way to its creations. 

A one-size-fits-all approach would never work when it comes to adapting and growing, because no two moments or situations in life are the same. Everything in your life, your connections, your body, your brain, is unique to you. Having a prescriptive approach to the future simply makes no sense. However, once you master the ability to find the complexities in your life and leverage your strengths to overcome them, you’ll quickly find that you can adapt and thrive no matter what the future brings. 

So now, I challenge you—no matter how busy you are—to start thinking about where your life is ripe for disruption. Where can you find the opportunities to grow and improvise? Once you lean into those, I promise, your life will never be the same.

For more advice on how to leverage disruptions to adapt and grow, you can find Surfing Rogue Waves on Amazon.

Eric Pilon-Bignell is a pragmatic futurist focused on addressing disruption by increasing the creative capacity of individuals, teams, and organizations to ignite change, innovation, and foster continuous growth. Eric has an undergraduate degree in engineering, an MBA in Information Systems, and a Ph.D. in Global Leadership. His doctoral work primarily explored complexity sciences centered on executive cognition and their use of intuitive improvisation, decision-making, artificial intelligence, and data-based decision models. When he is not working with clients, researching, or writing, he can be found in the mountains or on the water. He founded PROJECT7 to raise awareness and money for research on brain-related illnesses. Eric is currently working and living with his wife in Chicago, Illinois. To connect or learn more about this book, Eric, or PROJECT7, please visit www.ericpb.me.

Podcast: Long Shot Leaders

“The word that comes to mind with Eric is that he is natural, he is imperfectly perfect, in a sense that he has had his struggles but he lives his life with adventure, and he is an intellect at the same time. Yet, he doesn’t try to hide that he has issues just like everybody else. Usually when you see people write books like this they have to give us the aura that they are perfect and they got it all figured out. Eric, who is an extremely smart guy, doesn’t put off that vibe. But he has written a great book that I have now read and I must tell you that he is asking really insightful questions, the books analyzation, and the facts and data that he puts into it is fascinating and I really enjoyed reading it. I enjoyed talking to him as well” -Michael Stein

It’s Time for a Reset: Why Most of the Things We Worry About Aren’t Actually a Threat

It’s Time for a Reset: Why Most of the Things We Worry About Aren’t Actually a Threat

Fears. Sure, we all have them. At times they are rational, sometimes, not so much.  Over the course of humanity, fear has grown as an evolutionary safety mechanism and is responsible for much of our survival throughout the centuries. But have you ever stopped to ask yourself whether the fears you’re carrying around are legitimate? 

Most people worry a lot about the world and the dangers they imagine lurking around every turn. Why is that? A large part of it is due to the media, and a lot of it is because we’ve been taught to believe there are lots of things to worry about in this world. However—and this is important—the things we’re taught to worry about aren’t actually a threat, at least for most of us. 

It’s time to reset and understand the real dangers we face. Although still present in some regard, the fears that have motivated humanity for hundreds of years are no longer a significant threat. 

Most of us have jobs; we have families and friends or children to raise. Managing our day-to-day robs us of the mindset to properly dissect the noise and manipulation we face from the real threats we should be worried about. However, to truly thrive in the world of today and the world of tomorrow, that’s exactly what we need to do.

Our Fake Fear

Evolution, especially human evolution, is driven by fear. The fear of starvation or not having water takes a high priority. Then we worry about not losing what we have acquired, not being enslaved or killed by others. Maybe then we try to absolve the fear of dying from infections, diseases, or the bitter cold. 

We worry about more specific catastrophic events, too. We’re told that we have tensions hitting tipping points around systematic and cultural racism and discrimination, a global COVID pandemic that is running wild, continuous terrorist threats, countries at constant war, and some global powers even playing Russian roulette with nukes.

The reality, though, is the gravity of these fears are often misrepresented and politicized. Yes, food security and health and war are huge problems that need to be addressed, but from the existential viewpoint of humanity as a whole, these are no longer the greatest threats we face. What we need to fear today looks nothing like what we’ve spent the last thousand years being afraid of.

We’re Afraid of the Wrong Things

As our intelligence has evolved, we have become better at understanding and addressing our known fears. The problem is that fears that motivate us are no longer a threat to our survival. 

Before today, humanity faced three major problems that threatened our very existence: starvation, disease, and war. Although these are still problems today, they are not existential ones. In fact, these problems have reached the other end of the spectrum. People eat too much and die from diabetes. More people die from old age than a disease. More people die from suicide than those killed through crime, terrorism, and war combined. 

In 2010, obesity killed three times more humans than starvation and malnourishment combined. In 2014, over 2.1 billion humans were obese versus the 850 million humans who were malnourished. By 2030, 50% of the human population is expected to be obese. 

It’s a similar story when it comes to disease. The spread of infectious diseases has threatened the existence of humanity for a very long time. While epidemics are still a problem and devastating, they are not the same threat as they once were. There are numerous examples of this, but let’s just take one: smallpox. 

In 1967, the smallpox disease had infected fifteen million people and killed two million. In 1979, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported a global vaccination initiative to eliminate smallpox. By 2014, there was not a single human that was either infected or killed from smallpox. We can eliminate disease with science. 

What About Terrorism?

One of the primary functions of most governments is to keep their citizens safe. As the threat of violence continues to decrease, a government’s ability to mobilize the masses and shape behavior through fear also decreases. As a whole, the idea of government is about citizen control. What does a government do when its primary function of protecting its people is obsolete? When fear doesn’t do it, bring on terror. 

Terrorism is very much real and has found a way to take up vast airtime and overrun media coverage. With politicized agendas and unfounded media claims, the show of terrorism haunts our dreams as we imagine all the terrible violent ends we may face. 

But how much of a threat is terrorism, really? In 2010, 7,697 people died from terrorist violence. In the same year, three million people died from obesity. While the number of terrorism-related deaths varies from year to year, it is still nominal on the global scale of death. 

Globally, terrorism is a relatively nonexistent threat to the whole of humanity. This is not to downplay lives lost due to terrorism, of course. However, it should show you that it’s time to step back and look at what you’re actually afraid of, and whether that fear is legitimate. Terrorism isn’t going to end humanity, or even you, but the reaction to terrorism just might. 

The World is Changing

The industrial revolutions worked to solve the large-scale existential threats to humanity. Machine production in the First Industrial Revolution led to the creation of steam engines, which led to locomotives that built vast distribution networks for supplies and food. 

The Second Industrial Revolution ushered in the age of science and mass production, helping us understand the spread of infectious diseases and the diseases themselves. The Third Industrial Revolution brought us semiconductors and mainframe computers, which led to personal computers, smartphones, and the internet. 

As we continue to advance and build on all these inventions, we will continue to minimize the risk and impact of our existence’s previous threats. Everything, expected and not, that comes with the megatrends of the Fourth Industrial Revolution will only further resolve these problems, making our fears even more obsolete. What then? 

The emergence of technological advancements and innovation is creating a new existential threat that humans must deal with. We must move on from our perceived existential threats to addressing actual existential threats. Food shortages won’t wipe out humanity, but the inventions of the Fourth Industrial Revolution might. 

Let me put it another way. You might rather starve to death than face the potential threats posed by artificial intelligence.

The True Threat

We’ve gotten this far because of our potential for intelligence. Every generation overcomes challenges thought impossible by the previous generation because of our intelligence. This is why the most pressing threat any of us will face in our lifetime is a new form of intelligence: AI. It’s not sci-fi; this is a growing reality. 

Better understanding this new form of intelligence is not only essential to our survival but will be vital to shaping our short- and long-term futures. This is much more than the humanoid robots Hollywood loves to play with; it could be an invisible, cloud-based form of artificial intelligence. It could be a human who has augmented their brain through a wireless connection with endless amounts of digital storage and exponential computing power. 

Regardless of the exact form, a monopolistic form of singularity can occur. This will be the endgame for humanity unless we address all of the ways AI can be catastrophic. The early stages of this change are underway right now. This is the time for the conversation, and you must play a part. 

We Must Redefine Our Ethics

As a global community, we must work together to redefine our ethics around the current and future technological developments. When considering these ethics, we must have as many people as possible, with as many views and opinions as possible, involved in the process. 

No technical prowess is required. Instead, all we need is a basic understanding and education around the concept and topic and a clear open mind with a selfless focus on humanity. We all can participate. The key, though, is we must be willing to put aside our fake fears and focus on the true threat that’s coming.

For more advice on how to thrive in the world that’s coming, you can find Surfing Rogue Waves on Amazon.

Eric Pilon-Bignell is a pragmatic futurist focused on addressing disruption by increasing the creative capacity of individuals, teams, and organizations to ignite change, innovation, and foster continuous growth. Eric has an undergraduate degree in engineering, an MBA in Information Systems, and a Ph.D. in Global Leadership. His doctoral work primarily explored complexity sciences centered on executive cognition and their use of intuitive improvisation, decision-making, artificial intelligence, and data-based decision models. When he is not working with clients, researching, or writing, he can be found in the mountains or on the water. He founded PROJECT7 to raise awareness and money for research on brain-related illnesses. Eric is currently working and living with his wife in Chicago, Illinois. To connect or learn more about this book, Eric, or PROJECT7, please visit www.ericpb.me.

Podcast: Being Human

“Futurist Eric Pilon-Bignell sees modern change presents as a giant, rogue wave emerging on the horizon. He asks, will we surf these waves with mastery? Or will we let them swallow us whole?

In his book Surfing Rogue Waves, Eric shows us how to gain from the greatest period of opportunity in all of human history.

In this episode, we talk about: The Six D’s of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, Thinking in exponentials, Why improv is the crucial 21st-century skill, Everlasting worms, Learning to surf complexity” - Host: Richard Atherton

Why Complexity Stops Us From Noticing Change

Why Complexity Stops Us From Noticing Change

The following is adapted from Surfing Rogue Waves.

Have you ever wondered why we don’t notice changes until after they happen? Think about it: change is a thing to study. It is something for after the fact, to look back upon. That’s true for small changes, and it’s true for the sweeping changes that alter the course of human history.

Yet, today, with the tools we have available, there is no reason why we can’t foresee the changes that are coming—and in fact, the benefits of doing that are enormous. Anticipating change would allow us to take advantage of the benefits while that change is happening. Just as importantly, it would allow us to alleviate (or at least lessen) the negative effects of that change.

So, why are we so bad at noticing change while it’s happening? In large part, it’s because of complexity. Perhaps, though, if we can understand complexity and how it interferes with our ability to notice change in real-time, we can overcome its effects and learn to spot change and disruption (and do something about it) while it’s happening.

What is Complexity?

We like to frame our lives as being “complex.” Maybe you have a lot of meetings to attend or an endless inbox or a bunch of birthday parties to go to on the same weekend, but this is far from what complexity can be. Your full calendar is thoroughly organized and predictable compared to the scale of what complexity truly is. 

How the earth was created and life as we know it is littered with complexity. Complexity is everything around us. It’s not a result of a condition; it is everything. Complexity is not a goal or a state we are trying to achieve; it is merely the reality of the world we now live in.

Complexity at a high level is made up of interactions, emergence, dynamics, self-organization, and adaptation. As in, true complexity is all of these things at once. If it is dynamic, but not self-organized, then it falls out of definition. 

The Interconnected Relationships Between Everything

We all regularly make complex decisions, but our instinct is to simplify things. As a result, we tend not to consider the complexity of the world around us consciously. The study of complexity science focuses on systems and challenges that are dynamic, unpredictable, and multidimensional by nature. 

Complexity science looks at the interconnected relationships between everything. This is immensely helpful when looking at the exponential changes that happen when things are digitized—complexity science allows us to move away from our traditional, linear thinking. No more cause and effect, but rather a million effects that might lead to one cause you notice and a thousand you don’t.

Humans are incredibly complex. Every part of our lives interacts with everything else. Friends, family, coworkers all impact our lives and outcomes. Then there is everyone we know on our social networks or the internet. Combine all that with the human body’s internal complexity; our brain is made up of tens of billions of neurons flying around and communicating via trillions of synaptic connections, some of which guide our thoughts and decisions. 

Amazingly, it all works together. Seriously, it’s mind-blowing. 

Complex Systems are Unpredictable

The biggest byproduct of complex systems is their unpredictable nature—crashes, fires, wars, all the fun stuff. The unpredictability has an upshot, though, as complex systems are incredibly robust and can endure incredible damage and massive environmental change. In the last two centuries, industrial progress has trashed our environment, but the durability of complex systems meant we found ways to adapt (so far). 

Those who do not understand complexity fail to see how large events build into things like climate change. All of us think we have essential jobs, yet our job doesn’t vanish when we call in sick for a day. When the president is hospitalized for a few days, the country does not shut down or collapse into chaos. Robust, complex systems always find a way to the next state of being.

If you live in a city, go over to the window and look outside. You will see a plethora of people coming and going, people riding bikes, cars, and buses driving around, delivery trucks stopping up traffic, the movement of endless ideas and goods all throughout the city. Somehow it all makes sense and works, yet there is no central planner for everything that is happening; it is not preplanned or managed from the top. The order of a city just emerges from the bottom up. 

Complexity Plays Out All Around Us

Complex systems are fascinating to study as they produce bewildering novelties of unpredictability, large events, robustness, and emergence. We see complexity play out in market volatility, industry failures, warnings of ecological failures, and even regularly in our daily lives. 

Furthermore, complexity is getting faster by the day—this is neither good nor bad, neither a gift nor a curse, but simply the inescapable reality of the times. Not all complexity is the same; some situations are far more complex than others—neurons, people, snowflakes, species, countries, companies, natural phenomena, and surfing, just to name a few! How we choose to engage complexity, if we can even consider it a choice, can be a burden or a blessing, or both. 

Complex systems are not in equilibrium; they are dynamic and, in a way, have a life of their own. Complexity lacks structure, but it isn’t necessarily chaotic. It occupies the unusual and uncomfortable space between order and chaos, which means that your beliefs’ interconnectedness to the truth or your expected truth is all part of the complexity.

Look Deeper to Understand Better

Today’s world is socially, economically, and politically more complex than it was in the past. We need new ways of thinking and tools of observation to comprehend what’s coming. The more we learn, the deeper we look, the more we understand through complexity the world within and around us, and the less we can ultimately understand with the old ways of thinking. 

From a purely pragmatic perspective, we must understand complexity as a way to build robust systems. We’d like to think that if we can identify the conditions that create large, disruptive events, maybe we can prevent those disruptions—that change—from happening. 

The reality is that it is through experiencing the change that we grow, adapt, and evolve. And, by understanding the complexity and interconnectedness of our lives, we can spot the change as it’s happening and learn from the disruption.

For more advice on how to identify and adapt to complexity, you can find Surfing Rogue Waves on Amazon.

Eric Pilon-Bignell is a pragmatic futurist focused on addressing disruption by increasing the creative capacity of individuals, teams, and organizations to ignite change, innovation, and foster continuous growth. Eric has an undergraduate degree in engineering, an MBA in Information Systems, and a Ph.D. in Global Leadership. His doctoral work primarily explored complexity sciences centered on executive cognition and their use of intuitive improvisation, decision-making, artificial intelligence, and data-based decision models. When he is not working with clients, researching, or writing, he can be found in the mountains or on the water. He founded PROJECT7 to raise awareness and money for research on brain-related illnesses. Eric is currently working and living with his wife in Chicago, Illinois. To connect or learn more about this book, Eric, or PROJECT7, please visit www.ericpb.me.

Podcast: Tech Leader Talk

“If we don’t ‘ride’ the 4th Industrial Revolution, we will be left behind.” – Eric Pilon-Bignell

“I see the parallel’s even more now with the book.” “Today on the podcast we talk about what is the 4th Industrial Revolution and how is it changing the world, how surfing is related to the 4th Industrial Revolution, why disruption is the new normal, technology advancements are happening exponentially faster and converging with each other.” - Host: Steve Sponseller

The Key to Identifying and Seizing Opportunities is Understanding Disruption

The Key to Identifying and Seizing Opportunities is Understanding Disruption

The following is adapted from Surfing Rogue Waves.

Disruption is inevitable. When our life systems are pushed out of equilibrium, either on purpose or by accident, we ultimately change and are allowed to grow. Some disruption is more obvious than others. Sometimes you will see the general direction of it; other times you will have to improvise as you pioneer through entirely new terrain created in the moment. 

Disruption isn’t a bad thing. Think of disruption like waves we want to surf: when we understand those waves of disruption, we avoid paddling into situations that are beyond our ability to handle (shark-infested waters or suicidal waves). At the same time, because we understand them, we can be excited about the oncoming waves instead of fearing them.  

Continuing with the surfing analogy, because it works so well to illustrate the point: waves are coming. They are the waves of change from technological advancements and all the other disruptions our world will experience. They will demand our focus as they push our limits like never before. However, the waves are inevitable. If you want to ride them, if you want to identify and seize the opportunities they bring, you must seek out the disruption. Make them the moments you live for. 

If you do—and I’ll share some insight about how to do that—the next thing you know, you’ll be surfing along in an automatic reaction in the face of disruption. You’ll be able to adapt and ride more waves, catching the best ones and allowing them to propel you forward. The alternative? Try to run from the waves, and the best you can hope for is that if you wipe out you are not left in the impact zone. The choice is yours.

Disruption Happens No Matter What

The waves of disruptions are like science; they are going to happen whether you believe in them or not. If you don’t address the disruption, face it, and ride it, you’ll be left behind. Welcome to the Fourth Industrial Revolution—disruption is the new normal, and it’s getting faster.

Disruption starts long before we see it. Consider Blockbuster and Netflix. For most of us, the fall of one and rise of the other seemed instantaneous. But looking back on it, there were specific and intentional actions and decisions that happened long before the public noticed. 

The trick, then, is to see these disruptions before they are surprises. The byproduct of disruption emerges at the intersection of our surfing framework as a transformational lever to transcend into our futures. 

However, keep in mind that disruption is an opportunity long before it is ever a threat. Trying to replicate the best and brightest is no longer a recipe for success. Disruption routinely shows us that warning signals rarely come from the top. 

We Can Leverage Disruption for Our Own Benefit

Keeping all that in mind, then, how can we identify, protect ourselves from, and leverage disruption for our own benefit? It all comes down to four key takeaways.

First, we must remember that disruption is our friend. In the world we currently live in, disruption is almost always an opportunity far before it is a threat of any kind. We need to embrace disruption and not try to avoid it in life. Although it might feel counterintuitive at times, we should paddle toward the waves, not away from them.

Next, we must always look for disruption. However, only do this when you’re in a strong place. When everything is going perfect in our lives, that is when we start to innovate and look for disruption to capitalize on it. We do not want to wait until we are on a downslide, in the gutter, in the valley of despair, and when everything is going wrong in life. We look to engage disruption long before this point. 

Remember, to look down and in different places too. In business, we are reminded to look for disruption by observing opportunities at the bottom of the market. Disruption very rarely comes from above. Look at what different groups of people are doing—your younger siblings and colleagues, for example. It is not about keeping your head up this time. It is not about doing things the way they have always been done, embrace diversity, and learn from different means. 

Finally, do not get distracted. We can protect ourselves and our efforts from disruption by making sure we understand and focus specifically on what we are trying to solve or achieve. It is important not to lose our focus on what we are trying to solve or achieve, despite the speed at which life pulls us in many different directions. 

Identify and Seize Opportunities

This understanding of disruption is foundational in diagnosing what we can and cannot do in our own lives. It helps us prioritize our efforts, time, money, and resources to grow and build our future capabilities. Disruption will help guide our intuition to identify opportunities quickly and determine which operations are critical to focus on. 

Understanding disruption allows us to highlight what order to complete our tasks, attempt them at all, or possibly outsource the effort. From these concepts, we can manage our strategy as we paddle into the waves of disruption. It gives us a way to objectively take data and turn it into information, and we can use this information to build knowledge. How we turn this knowledge into wisdom in our daily lives is up to us. 

For more advice on a powerful framework you can use to thrive in the face of disruption and change, you can find Surfing Rogue Waves on Amazon.

Eric Pilon-Bignell is a pragmatic futurist focused on addressing disruption by increasing the creative capacity of individuals, teams, and organizations to ignite change, innovation, and foster continuous growth. Eric has an undergraduate degree in engineering, an MBA in Information Systems, and a Ph.D. in Global Leadership. His doctoral work primarily explored complexity sciences centered on executive cognition and their use of intuitive improvisation, decision-making, artificial intelligence, and data-based decision models. When he is not working with clients, researching, or writing, he can be found in the mountains or on the water. He founded PROJECT7 to raise awareness and money for research on brain-related illnesses. Eric is currently working and living with his wife in Chicago, Illinois. To connect or learn more about this book, Eric, or PROJECT7, please visit www.ericpb.me.

Podcast: Aimtowin

“Eric is a pragmatic futurist focused on addressing disruption by increasing the creative capacity of individuals, teams, and organizations to ignite change, innovation, and foster continuous growth. Technology is changing every aspect of life more rapidly than ever. We need to look within and Eric is on the AimToWin podcast to explore how leaders and organizations can navigate the waves of disruption and find a path forward. If leaders want to be able to thrive and succeed in the future, they need to learn how to surf the waves of complexity. Eric is on the show today to talk about the challenges we’re all facing and how we can navigate them.” - Host: Wade Thomas

Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds

Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds

The following is adapted from Surfing Rogue Waves.

Do you have an “Auntie Karen”? You know, the aunt (or uncle, or sister, or friend, or brother-in-law, or any other friend or family member) that insists on posting things that just aren’t true on social media? Most of us do, and it’s frustrating, because no matter how much you tell Auntie Karen that her facts are wrong, she won’t stop posting crazy things. 

How do we deal with the misinformation that Auntie Karen regularly posts on social media? And why won’t Auntie Karen listen to the facts? Turns out, it all comes down to one thing: confirmation bias. Once you understand that, you can deal much better with the Auntie Karens of the world...and maybe stop yourself from becoming one too.

Processes Aren’t the Problem

When we see misinformation, we want to correct it—this is the deficit model. The next step assumes a rational person will consider new information and change their beliefs depending on the presented strength and accuracy. This is where our saying of “knowledge is power” comes from. But the processes aren’t the problem—people are. If we could simply correct misinformation with facts, fake news and propaganda would go away. 

Research from George Mason University suggests that in some cases, correcting falsehoods on social media about some topics can be effective. The effectiveness of these corrections come from algorithms that suggest related links around the issue or from a personal connection. The research showed how “information from friends might have a greater impact because we trust those closest to us.” 

However, just because you trust someone doesn’t make their beliefs correct. The researchers explain that “if you are somebody who is willing to believe in conspiracies, then you are not affected by corrective information.” These individuals, right or wrong, buy into the misinformation wholesale.

Cultural Values Trump Rationality

The deficit model fails when it comes to misinformation because it assumes we are all rational and our beliefs are correct. Research out of Yale suggests that scientific knowledge is not as important as conforming to cultural values, something we call “cultural cognition.” 

Often, individuals who share and spread untrue facts and stories associate strongly with a partisan position or narrative. Through misrepresentation of information, fake news aligns with how they see both themselves and the world. When they open their social media feeds and see an individual sharing a post of fake political news, their confirmation bias blinds them as they attempt to reinforce their existing perspective. 

When you fact-check Aunt Karen, even with the best of intentions, she sees it as an attack on the core of her identity. To her, you're not presenting facts and data but asking her to change how she sees herself as a person. By fact-checking Aunt Karen, you start a deeply personal fight, not taking part in an objective debate. 

Aunt Karen is basing her real-world decisions and actions on her beliefs, and your challenge presents an emotional argument that challenges and threatens the very meaning of who she believes she is. And by the way, this happens to everyone, not just the Karens of the world.

What Can You Do?

Given all this, what can you do? Do you invest time and resources to correct the false beliefs, or do you simply ignore and “unfollow” your Karens as a means of blocking them from influencing our rational beliefs? 

Well, here’s the bad news. As of right now, there does not seem to be a clear answer. That being said, the answer certainly isn’t to throw up your hands in disgust. There is something you can do: make sure you aren’t a Karen. Also, take heart in the fact that new research in cognitive psychology from the University of Western Australia found that corrections on social media can change individuals’ minds regarding some of the fake news. 

While this does not seem to have a lasting effect, it is worth considering when you’re deciding whether or not to fact-check. If you can do it in a way that doesn’t cause the other person to shut down, and you’re willing to be persistent about it, you may be able to help your Karens understand the facts, at least for a little while.

Misinformation is Dangerous

While it’s true that you’re fighting an uphill battle trying to get Auntie Karen to make decisions based on facts, you have to remember that misinformation is dangerous. 

Fact-checking Aunt Karen for her posts on how we should charge our smartphones in the microwave to prevent the 5G standard for broadband cellular networks responsible for spreading COVID, a disease invented by Bill Gates, is one thing. Yes, microwaving her smartphone becomes an embarrassing, expensive, and explosive experience for her. Still, she’ll probably remain unfazed because, obviously, all corporations and mainstream media are part of the conspiracy and out to get her. 

The real problem is that through complexity, human biases and wrong beliefs get much worse. Aunt Karen blowing up her smartphone in her home can seem funny, but some deep drivers are still at work. The same drivers that convince extremists and nationalists to share bomb-making manuals online or racist conspiracy theories justify systematic failure of the past or terrorism designed to take advantage of weak people and create homicidal tendencies in them. 

Misinformation in our complex age provides a foundation ripe for disaster. Be aware of that, and even more importantly, be aware of cognitive biases, both in yourself and in the people around you.

For more advice on how to overcome cognitive biases, you can find Surfing Rogue Waves on Amazon.

Eric Pilon-Bignell is a pragmatic futurist focused on addressing disruption by increasing the creative capacity of individuals, teams, and organizations to ignite change, innovation, and foster continuous growth. Eric has an undergraduate degree in engineering, an MBA in Information Systems, and a Ph.D. in Global Leadership. His doctoral work primarily explored complexity sciences centered on executive cognition and their use of intuitive improvisation, decision-making, artificial intelligence, and data-based decision models. When he is not working with clients, researching, or writing, he can be found in the mountains or on the water. He founded PROJECT7 to raise awareness and money for research on brain-related illnesses. Eric is currently working and living with his wife in Chicago, Illinois. To connect or learn more about this book, Eric, or PROJECT7, please visit www.ericpb.me.

Podcast: Author hour

“Eric Pilon-Bignell’s new book, Surfing Rogue Waves, presents a gripping and insightful framework, and how to pick up a board and surf the rogue waves of the 21st century. His insights are going to help business leaders understand the onslaught of the complexity of the disruption that they face, not just in the office, but throughout the everyday encounters of daily life as they navigate and unshackle future potential.” - Host: Drew Applebaum

To Thrive Through Life’s Complexities, You Have to Master This Concept

To Thrive Through Life’s Complexities, You Have to Master This Concept

Our world is complex and can often feel overwhelming. How can we deal with it? Through improvisation. #SurfingRogueWaves

The following is adapted from Surfing Rogue Waves.

The world in which we reside is complex, meaning it is diverse, interconnected, interdependent, and can adapt. The only piece we can control to a certain extent is how we adapt within all this complexity. But how do we do that? How do we adapt in the face of everything coming at us? 

The answer to that question can be found when we ask ourselves a different question: Why was Kelly Slater so much better at surfing than everyone else? His flexibility, paddling strength and speed, and reach were nothing out of the ordinary. No, it was that Slater had “surfing sense.” 

He could anticipate what was about to happen on the water and react to it faster than the competition. He could gather, process, and understand massive amounts of complex information instantaneously. Instead of seeing the linear connection of individual waves forming, Slater fluidly improvised on all his minor predictions of the formations, breakdowns, and re-formations of the patterns he saw. 

Being present in the moment, he would use the constantly evolving spatial and temporal relationships among his position, his board, the forming waves, the other surfers, and the waves’ amplitude and speed to dictate his next thoughts and movements. 

That, then, is the answer to how we can constantly adapt no matter what complexity we’re facing: like Slater, we must learn how to improvise at the highest level. That is how we can use our decisions and actions to shape outcomes in our favor. The only problem? Most of us aren’t even aware of this need, let alone how to consciously do it. But to thrive in the world, that has to change.

Plan and Improvise

We have all, at some point, had to improvise. In fact, research indicates that about 90 percent of your daily decisions are improvised. It’s no wonder, either: research also shows that most plans fail because of the ever-increasing instability and uncertainty of our modern-day world.

Despite all this, most of us still rely on traditional planning methods before we undertake a big task. What should we do instead? Utilize techniques that allow for improvisation when conditions change. Because conditions always change, always. In fact, studies have shown that only 10–30 percent of planned strategies are ever actualized; that means we’re already improvising solutions 70–90 percent of the time.

That leads us to the debate every MBA candidate endures: plan or execute? The answer is both. Have a plan, but only as a framework to guide and direct the execution. That’s right—throw those overengineered business plans out the window.

Learn to Make Off-the-Cuff Decisions

Strategic planning fails because of the unpredictability of the complex and ever-changing landscape. We have to improvise! Unfortunately, research shows that we don’t know how to make the decisions we need to get the desired outcome. We will remain incapable of these decisions without a better understanding of improvisation. 

Since 70–90 percent of our daily choices are improvised, it is worth learning how to make off-the-cuff decisions. Doing nothing is worse than doing something, so why not learn how to do the most useful thing for our desired outcome?

Improvisation is making something from whatever resources or information are available at that moment. While this results in a spontaneous execution with no specific or scripted preparation, we can actually practice improvisation by leveraging our past experiences. Much like in jazz music, improvisation is rooted in exploration and discovery. Instead of being controlled or composed by an individual, jazz musicians use improvisation within a loose framework to create. 

As controlled as we think the world is, improvisation is everywhere. Without it (and GPS), how would you navigate around a road closure on your commute to work? How would you debate with a friend? How do the random ingredients in your fridge turn into a last-minute meal at dinnertime? 

Anytime something does not go entirely to plan, you are improvising on some level. Furthermore, research shows improvisation leads to faster innovation and improved performance. Since the complexity in our lives is changing faster than ever before, improvisation is an essential skill to develop.

The 4 Principles of Improvisation

At this point, you know what important improvisation is. So how do we improvise? At the highest and most general level, there are four principles behind improvisational decisions: 

1. Use spontaneity: Go with your gut. Mention the first thing that comes to mind. Mistakes are opportunities to learn, which involves some rewiring of our brains. Learn to go against the idea to “think before you speak.”

2. Say “Yes, and...”: Always accept ideas. In the moment, as stupid as some of the ideas or suggestions might be from the group around you, do not shut them down. Instead, accept the idea and counter or build off it.

3. Always stay with the group and in the moment: Constantly listen and observe the environment.

4. Make others look good: When we’re in a team, our instinct might be to compete or cast blame for failures; we may want to remove ourselves from the uncomfortable experience. Don’t. Stay in the moment, be with those around you, and work to make each other look good instead of leaning into your instinctive, competitive tendencies. 

These four principles are a great way to practice your improvisation skills. Remember, you already improvise the majority of your decisions; now, just get intentional about practicing, so you’re ready to handle any situation no matter what happens.

Keep Your Systems on Tilt

It’s tempting to think things are less risky when we plan to do them the way we always have. But this is no longer the case. To best transcend our complex future, we need to stay nimble and adaptable, just like Kelly Slater.  

We need to learn to make ad-hoc, improvisational decisions at the moment when insufficient information is available. Improvisation allows us to best leverage the waves of complexity the world throws our way. It is what allows us to thrive.

For more advice on how to thrive in the face of complexity and change, you can find Surfing Rogue Waves on Amazon.

Eric Pilon-Bignell is a pragmatic futurist focused on addressing disruption by increasing the creative capacity of individuals, teams, and organizations to ignite change, innovation, and foster continuous growth. Eric has an undergraduate degree in engineering, an MBA in Information Systems, and a Ph.D. in Global Leadership. His doctoral work primarily explored complexity sciences centered on executive cognition and their use of intuitive improvisation, decision-making, artificial intelligence, and data-based decision models. When he is not working with clients, researching, or writing, he can be found in the mountains or on the water. He founded PROJECT7 to raise awareness and money for research on brain-related illnesses. Eric is currently working and living with his wife in Chicago, Illinois. To connect or learn more about this book, Eric, or PROJECT7, please visit www.ericpb.me.

Podcast: The Literacy Advocate & The Purpose-Driven Entrepreneur

The Literacy Advocate & The Purpose-Driven Entrepreneur

“We talked before hitting record, Eric made a statement that I thought - that’s going to be a perfect episode to the podcast. Eric said ‘despite all the exponential change we’re still batch processing kids, our educational system was formed a hundred years ago and it’s relatively unchanged’. Eric explains why batch education is not preparing kids for this technologically accelerating world.” - Host: Timmy Bauer listen at http://ericpb.me/podcasts

Medium.com - To Live Your Best Life, Seek Out the Waves of Disruption

Featured on medium.com

to the unique conditions of each incoming wave.

Learning from past experiences allows us to prepare for the unexpected events coming down the pike — like the spontaneous emergence of a rogue wave that could either knock us off the board, or give us the ride of a lifetime. Further to the point, surfers are not merely preparing for rogue waves; they are actively hunting them. They dream about them.

Why not take this mindset into our everyday life? Not only should we prepare for the rogue waves of disruption, but we should continuously seek them out, dream of them, and hunt them down. We can either engage with the change or let it show up as a wipeout surprise.

Without preparation, the only option is to run from the rogue waves before they annihilate us, leaving us vulnerable to the next giant wave building in the distance. Some people aimlessly drift through life, trying not to drown, while others prepare themselves to have the time of their lives, surfing the heck out of rogue monster waves.

In the ocean of our lives, we are experiencing rogue waves building in a full-on mode of complex hyper-disruption. All the changes in our world feel less predictable, more relentless, and more catastrophic than ever before.

We should be concerned, as these changes will transform everything we know about our world and ourselves. We will never be sure how all of this disruption and change will transform our lives, but we know change is happening.

For the first time in human history, there are technologies of exponential capacity that are starting to crash into one another, creating an explosion of amplification of how each technology makes rogue waves. And the frequency of these collisions will only increase in the coming years, reshaping our lives every time.

While we may start to see how these changes happen, there are still countless unseen revolutions happening in distribution, transportation, finance, real estate, retail, education, advertising, food, health, manufacturing, entertainment, and many other industries.

How do we prepare for changes we can’t even see?

As our technologies get faster and develop more rapidly, the collisions get exponentially more catastrophic and impact our day-to-day in further-reaching capacities with less predictability. We don’t know much, we can’t see into the future (yet), but we do know that forecasts have advancements in robotics, virtual reality, augmented reality, digital biology, and sensors slamming directly into 3D printing, blockchain, global digital networks, and AI to create an explosion of rogue disruption, unlike anything we have ever seen.

These disruptions will further move the daily life of all humanity into uncharted, unexplored oceans. They will force us to reimagine the world.

Not only will we be presented with technological and systematic challenges, but we will also be forced to rethink everything we know from the human experience, from aging and happiness to artificial human augmentations. These rogue waves of disruption are already making us reconsider how we raise children, how we govern our cities and nations, and how we care for this planet.

What does it mean to be human? Or to have morals and ethics? Whatever the answers, one thing is for sure: we all have to stop watching from the shore and start learning to surf the greatest waves humanity has ever experienced.

For more advice on how to prepare for the disruption that is inevitably coming, you can find Surfing Rogue Waves on Amazon